Hallador Energy shows a highly favorable price-target asymmetry and a still-positive insider buying signal, but weak business quality, soft cash conversion, and a failed momentum gate keep the setup rated avoid despite the attractive headline reward-to-risk math.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Asymmetric Upside↓Deteriorating
- Quality Below Minimum Floor↓Deteriorating
- Weak Cash Conversion↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.49: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.41; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 4.6/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)
Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in Indiana, generating electricity from the 1,080 MW coal-fired Merom Power Plant within the MISO grid and mining bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.49: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.41; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 4.6/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Hallador Energy Company
About Hallador Energy Company
Hallador Energy generates electricity from a single 1,080 MW coal-fired plant, Merom, dispatched into the MISO grid, and mines bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its Sunrise Coal subsidiary in Indiana. In its Electric Operations segment, one customer represented 23.4% of 2025 revenue and a second represented 10.1%; in Coal Operations, two customers accounted for 10.4% and 13.8% of 2025 revenue, respectively. Hallador Power is regulated by FERC as a public utility for its wholesale power sales.
Hallador sells accredited capacity and wholesale energy from Merom to utilities and other MISO market participants through power purchase agreements and bilateral contracts, supplemented by spot sales in the day-ahead and real-time MISO markets, while Sunrise mines coal primarily for delivery to power plants in the Midwest and Southeast United States under long-term contracts. The company's Oaktown Mining Complex sits about twenty miles from Merom, letting the two businesses share low-cost fuel logistics on a delivered basis. Hallador is pursuing growth beyond its existing coal-fired capacity: it applied to MISO's Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) program in November 2025 to add up to 515 MW of natural gas generation adjacent to Merom, and MISO accepted the application for a 6-to-9-month review versus the traditional 4.5-year interconnection process. The company recorded a $215.1 million non-cash impairment on its coal properties in the fourth quarter of 2024 and held $30.0 million of funded bank debt as of December 31, 2025.
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Hallador's revenue rests on a small set of offtake relationships in both of its segments: in Electric Operations, one customer supplied 23.4% of 2025 segment revenue (down from 30.6% in 2024) and a second contributed 10.1%, while in Coal Operations two customers accounted for 10.4% and 13.8%, respectively. Because Merom is Hallador's only generating asset and Sunrise's Oaktown complex is its primary coal source, the loss or non-renewal of any of these named customers, or a shift in industry conditions that leaves the company more exposed to volatile day-ahead and spot MISO pricing, would concentrate risk in a way a more diversified generation or mining fleet would not.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
From Hallador Energy Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-14Recent Developments — Hallador Energy Company
Latest news
- NEWS Hallador Energy Q2 EPS $(0.32) Misses $(0.01) Estimate, Sales $101.505M Beat $92.744M Estimate — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-08-14T11:47:20Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Revenue shrinking — -1.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.49: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.41; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. (Note: Risk dimension 4.6/10 and A.R:R 4.7:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $14.41. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.08 (+55.5% upside). Prior stop was $14.41. Stop-loss: $14.41.
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).
Hallador Energy Company trades at a P/E of 788.5 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover HNRG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Hallador Energy Company do?Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in...
Hallador Energy is a vertically integrated independent power producer and coal mining company operating primarily in Indiana, generating electricity from the 1,080 MW coal-fired Merom Power Plant within the MISO grid and mining bituminous coal from the Illinois Basin through its Sunrise Coal subsidiary. In 2025, one customer accounted for 23.4% of Electric Operations segment revenue and another for 13.8% of Coal Operations segment revenue, reflecting the company's reliance on a small number of long-term power and coal offtake contracts. Hallador has applied to MISO's ERAS program to add up to