TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TAC stock price target?

Take-profit $12.93 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.59.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TAC?

Target reached (-8.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0); Target reached (-8.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Q: Is TAC overvalued or undervalued?

TransAlta Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TAC?

18 analysts cover TAC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.

Recovery setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2 days ago (May 19, 2026, 2:06 AM ET)

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.46: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

$12.46+3.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#5 of 7 Utilities - Independent Power Producers

QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield11.06%

IncomeYield1.60%(5y avg 1.67%)Payout1200.00%at-risk

Stop $11.59Target $12.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1

Analyst target$13.47+8.1%2 analysts

$12.93our TP

$12.46price

$13.47mean

$10

$17

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — TransAlta Corporation

Latest news

Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
Full Transcript: TransAlta Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
TransAlta Q1 Adj. EPS $0.04 Beats $0.01 Estimate, Sales $412.000M Down From $528.037M YoY — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
TransAlta Appoints Mike Politeski As EVP, Finance And CFO, Effective May 1, Replacing Joel Hunter; President And CEO Joh — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-8.1% upside)

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)34.8

Mkt Cap$3.8B

EV/EBITDA11.7

Profit Mgn-7.7%

ROE-11.1%

Rev Growth-25.5%

Beta0.43

Dividend1.60%

Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish

IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.715%1.00

Quality2.715%0.41

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.810%0.28

Sentiment5.810%0.58

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.910%0.29

Technical Setup5.25%0.26

Risk Profile6.25%0.31

Catalyst2.75%0.14

Overall (Σ contributions)4.52

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Unprofitable operations — net margin -7.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Roa

0.9

Gross Margin

2.3

Moat

2.5

Current Ratio

3.0

Piotroski F

5.6

Operating Margin

7.4

No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Dividend Safety

3.5

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

4.5

Macd

6.4

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.0

Growth Rank

0.0

Value Rank

6.7

GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

45 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.92Resistance $13.19

Price Targets

$12

$13

A.Upside+3.8%

A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.46: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $11.59. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.93 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.59. Stop-loss: $11.59.

What are the risks of investing in TAC?

Target reached (-8.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is TAC overvalued or undervalued?

TransAlta Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TAC?

18 analysts cover TAC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.

What does TransAlta Corporation do?TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro,...

TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.