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TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.44: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta... Read more

$12.44+12.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#4 of 7 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Stop $11.57Target $13.96(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$13.54+8.9%2 analysts
$13.96our TP
$12.44price
$13.54mean
$10
$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.44: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)36.0
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn-5.7%
ROE-9.6%
Rev Growth-11.7%
Beta0.46
Dividend1.70%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.0
Gross Margin
2.3
Current Ratio
2.9
Operating Margin
4.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
6.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.92Resistance $14.24

Price Targets

$12
$14
A.Upside+12.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.44: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.57. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.96 (+12.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.57. Stop-loss: $11.57.

What are the risks of investing in TAC?

Target reached (-7.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is TAC overvalued or undervalued?

TransAlta Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TAC?

18 analysts cover TAC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $14.

What does TransAlta Corporation do?TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro,...

TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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