Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
HNRG · Why this verdict
Why Hallador Energy (HNRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hallador Energy shows a highly favorable price-target asymmetry and a still-positive insider buying signal, but weak business quality, soft cash conversion, and a failed momentum gate keep the setup rated avoid despite the attractive headline reward-to-risk math.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The setup shows a highly favorable risk/reward skew, with roughly 58.7% upside to the analyst-based target against about 14% downside to the stop, producing an asymmetry ratio above 4-to-1. Reward-to-risk math | If the asymmetric setup plays out, price should move substantially toward the target as the wide reward-to-risk gap closes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe position-sizing framework still lands on avoid despite the favorable ratio, since the stock is failing the momentum gate and business quality screens below the minimum floor. | ||
Business quality screens below the minimum acceptable floor at 2.9 against a 4.0 threshold, with the data citing quality concerns and no competitive moat. Warnings | The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor for the position to become suitable to hold again. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company has still beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters with a strong average surprise, showing operational execution even while the blended quality score screens weak. | ||
Cash conversion is weak, with free cash flow running at only 44% of net income, a level the data flags as an earnings-quality red flag. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should climb back toward or above 100% for the cash-conversion concern to resolve over the next several quarters. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe ratio is still positive, meaning the business is generating real free cash flow, just at a level below net income rather than a shortfall into negative territory. | ||
Price momentum is currently weak, failing the engine's threshold at 2.5 against a 4.5 minimum, though the 200-day moving average is still rising and the data characterizes the move as a pullback rather than confirmed weakness. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum would need to climb back above the 4.5 threshold for the momentum gate to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume is distributing, with a falling on-balance-volume reading, a genuine near-term headwind even if the longer-term moving-average trend has not confirmed a breakdown. | ||
Options positioning shows an extreme skew, with a put/call ratio of 36.07, a level the data flags as elevated, alongside high implied volatility of 98%. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize toward more typical levels if the extreme positioning was a temporary distortion. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsiders have been buying, adding $86,520 in net purchases over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish skew implied by the extreme put/call ratio. | ||
The setup shows a highly favorable risk/reward skew, with roughly 58.7% upside to the analyst-based target against about 14% downside to the stop, producing an asymmetry ratio above 4-to-1.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- If the asymmetric setup plays out, price should move substantially toward the target as the wide reward-to-risk gap closes.
CounterThe position-sizing framework still lands on avoid despite the favorable ratio, since the stock is failing the momentum gate and business quality screens below the minimum floor.
Business quality screens below the minimum acceptable floor at 2.9 against a 4.0 threshold, with the data citing quality concerns and no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor for the position to become suitable to hold again.
CounterThe company has still beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters with a strong average surprise, showing operational execution even while the blended quality score screens weak.
Cash conversion is weak, with free cash flow running at only 44% of net income, a level the data flags as an earnings-quality red flag.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should climb back toward or above 100% for the cash-conversion concern to resolve over the next several quarters.
CounterThe ratio is still positive, meaning the business is generating real free cash flow, just at a level below net income rather than a shortfall into negative territory.
Price momentum is currently weak, failing the engine's threshold at 2.5 against a 4.5 minimum, though the 200-day moving average is still rising and the data characterizes the move as a pullback rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum would need to climb back above the 4.5 threshold for the momentum gate to clear.
CounterVolume is distributing, with a falling on-balance-volume reading, a genuine near-term headwind even if the longer-term moving-average trend has not confirmed a breakdown.
Options positioning shows an extreme skew, with a put/call ratio of 36.07, a level the data flags as elevated, alongside high implied volatility of 98%.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize toward more typical levels if the extreme positioning was a temporary distortion.
CounterInsiders have been buying, adding $86,520 in net purchases over the past 90 days, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish skew implied by the extreme put/call ratio.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 44% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 9.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $169,432 (0.022% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 88%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.36
Upside
+58.3%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.36.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Quality at 3.4, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Asymmetric Upside
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio falls below 2.0, down from the current 4.17 reading, as the reward-to-risk gap narrows.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifThe quality score rises above 4.0, recovering from the current 2.9 reading.
- P3Weak Cash ConversionTripped
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio rises above 100%, up from the current 44% level.
- P4Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the current 2.5 reading and the engine's minimum threshold.
- P5Extreme Options Skew
Trip ifThe put/call ratio falls below 5.0, down sharply from the current 36.07 reading.