Oklo is a pre-revenue nuclear power developer with analysts projecting 46% upside and rising on-balance volume suggesting accumulation, but the company burns cash with negative free cash flow, carries a quality score of 1.6 below the investable floor of 4.0, and has missed earnings estimates in 3 of 4 quarters.
Thesis pillars
- Pre Revenue Cash Burn Risk→Stable
- Haleu Fuel Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- High Short Interest Technical Setup↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 17, 2026· older than 90 days
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Oklo is developing fast fission Aurora powerhouses (15-75 MWe) under a build-own-operate model, planning to sell electricity and heat via power purchase agreements rather than licensing designs. The company has no operating powerhouses; its first commercial Aurora targets... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 16, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Oklo Inc.
About Oklo Inc.
Oklo targets deployment of its first Aurora fast fission powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory in 2028, secured under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program in August 2025. In January 2026, the company entered a prepayment agreement with Meta Platforms for a 1.2 gigawatt power campus in Pike County, Ohio; in December 2024, Oklo signed a 12 GW Master Power Agreement with Switch, described as one of the largest corporate power purchase agreements in history. The company acquired Atomic Alchemy in February 2025 for approximately $28.4 million, adding radioisotope production capability.
Oklo's primary revenue model is selling electricity and heat through power purchase agreements as the owner-operator of Aurora powerhouses, rather than licensing reactor designs or selling powerhouse hardware as the traditional nuclear industry does. The company plans to retain ownership of each powerhouse and capture long-term operational efficiency improvements across its fleet. Customer pipeline includes data centers (Equinix, Prometheus Hyperscale, and Meta under binding prepayment), energy companies (Diamondback Energy under a letter of intent), and government facilities, with Oklo tentatively selected to supply power to Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. Fuel supply is the most significant input constraint: Aurora powerhouses rely on HALEU or plutonium-based fuels not currently available at commercial scale, with domestic HALEU production limited to small quantities from the DOE and from Centrus Energy Corp. at elevated prices. To address this, Oklo is developing a Tennessee Advanced Fuel Center with a roadmap of up to $1.68 billion in investment to convert used nuclear fuel into usable fast-reactor feedstock.
Show full overview
The NRC denied Oklo's first custom combined license application without prejudice in 2022, and the company had not submitted an updated application as of the filing date. In July 2025, a Phase I NRC pre-application readiness assessment concluded with no significant gaps identified. In August 2025, the DOE selected the Aurora-INL powerhouse under the Reactor Pilot Program, providing an alternative regulatory authorization pathway while NRC licensing progresses. The NRC also accepted Oklo's PDC topical report under an accelerated review schedule in August 2025. If either the NRC or the DOE imposes additional requirements or delays approvals, commercial deployment and PPA revenue could be materially deferred.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
From Oklo Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Oklo Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Wedbush Initiates Coverage on Oklo with Outperform Rating — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oklo's Strategy for Financing Small Modular Reactors — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS B. Riley Adjusts Price Target on Oklo to $61 From $92 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Oklo, Lowers Price Target to $61 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Initiates Coverage On Oklo with Hold Rating, Announces Price Target of $26 — benzinga Oct 26, 2026
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierHALEU fuel supply10-K Item 1A: 'HALEU for our commercial powerhouses is available only in limited quantities globally'
- HIGHSuppliersole use components10-K Item 1A: 'sole use in our powerhouses, fuel fabrication facilities, fuel recycling facilities, and radioisotopes facilities'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 1.01LOWOklo entered a new $1.0 billion at-the-market equity offering agreement with Goldman Sachs, BofA, Citi, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and 5 other sales agents. No business reason beyond growth capital needs cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUMBoard expanded to 11 directors; David Christian, Derek Kan, David Park, and Dr. Mark Peters appointed; Michael Thompson named Lead Independent Director. An officer also resigned effective April 8, 2026; filing truncated and officer role and successor status unknown.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 11.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 16, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $21.00. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $58.73 (+165.5% upside). Prior stop was $21.00. Stop-loss: $21.00.
Concentration risk — Supplier: HALEU fuel supply; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole use components; Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Oklo Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts rate OKLO, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 20 analysts publish price targets averaging $65.
What does Oklo Inc. do?Oklo is developing fast fission Aurora powerhouses (15-75 MWe) under a build-own-operate model, planning to sell...
Oklo is developing fast fission Aurora powerhouses (15-75 MWe) under a build-own-operate model, planning to sell electricity and heat via power purchase agreements rather than licensing designs. The company has no operating powerhouses; its first commercial Aurora targets deployment at Idaho National Laboratory in 2028, with a 1.2 GW prepayment agreement signed with Meta Platforms in January 2026 and a 12 GW Master Power Agreement signed with Switch in December 2024.