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GPCGenuine Parts CompanySell4.9·$130.32
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Genuine Parts carries an attractive forward valuation but falls just short of the quality floor, sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend with an overbought technical reading, and generates a risk/reward ratio below the minimum asymmetry bar—leaving the setup better suited to observation than new capital commitment.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Marginally Below Floor↓Deteriorating
  • Confirmed Downtrend Overbought Rally↑Improving
  • Elevated Put Call Hedging↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer... Read more

$130.32-6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#30 of 35 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.15%
IncomeYield3.30%(5y avg 2.76%)Payout1674.00%at-risk
Stop $123.78Target $135.44(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$140.38+7.7%8 analysts
$135.44our TP
$130.32price
$140.38mean
$122
$170

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)517.0
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$17.8B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn0.1%
ROE0.7%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.66
Dividend3.30%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV37%normal
Max Pain$100-23.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.2
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 3.3%
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $126.24Resistance $138.20

Price Targets

$124
$135
A.Upside-6.3%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $123.78. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the GPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.44 (-6.3% upside). Prior stop was $123.78. Stop-loss: $123.78.

What are the risks of investing in GPC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is GPC overvalued or undervalued?

Genuine Parts Company trades at a P/E of 517.0 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPC?

19 analysts cover GPC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $140.

What does Genuine Parts Company do?Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions....

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer outstanding service, an industry-leading assortment of replacement parts, extensive supply chain and distribution capabilities, and enhanced technology solutions.

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