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GPCGenuine Parts CompanySell5.1·$131.63
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Genuine Parts carries an attractive forward valuation but falls just short of the quality floor, sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend with an overbought technical reading, and generates a risk/reward ratio below the minimum asymmetry bar—leaving the setup better suited to observation than new capital commitment.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Marginally Below Floor↓Deteriorating
  • Confirmed Downtrend Overbought Rally↑Improving
  • Elevated Put Call Hedging↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 6 days (2026-10-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.63 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer... Read more

$131.63-7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#29 of 34 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.09%
IncomeYield3.25%(5y avg 2.72%)Payout1674.00%at-risk
Stop $125.85Target $151.37(default +15%)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$140.56+6.8%9 analysts
$151.37our TP
$131.63price
$140.56mean
$122
$170

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.63 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Positive momentum
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)522.8
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$18.0B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn0.1%
ROE0.7%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.68
Dividend3.25%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$100-24.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-09-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Appointment of Court Carruthers as Chief Executive Officer-Elect of the Company On September 9, 2026, Genuine Parts Company (the "Company") announced that Court Carruthers, a current member of the Company's Board of Directors (the "Board"), has been appointed Chief Executive Officer-Elect of the ...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
1.4
52w Position
7.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
5.3
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $123.85Resistance $132.85

Price Targets

$126
$151
A.Upside-7.1%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $131.63 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $125.85. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the GPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.37 (-7.1% upside). Prior stop was $125.85. Stop-loss: $125.85.

What are the risks of investing in GPC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is GPC overvalued or undervalued?

Genuine Parts Company trades at a P/E of 522.8 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPC?

19 analysts cover GPC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $141.

What does Genuine Parts Company do?Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions....

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer outstanding service, an industry-leading assortment of replacement parts, extensive supply chain and distribution capabilities, and enhanced technology solutions.

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