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GPCGenuine Parts CompanySell4.5·$138.08+0.33%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Genuine Parts carries an attractive forward valuation but falls just short of the quality floor, sits in a confirmed long-term downtrend with an overbought technical reading, and generates a risk/reward ratio below the minimum asymmetry bar—leaving the setup better suited to observation than new capital commitment.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Marginally Below FloorStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Overbought RallyDeteriorating
  • Elevated Put Call HedgingStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.08: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer... Read more

$138.08-11.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#35 of 36 Auto Parts
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.83%
IncomeYield3.10%(5y avg 2.76%)Payout1674.00%at-risk
Stop $132.12Target $158.79(default +15%)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$140.38+1.7%8 analysts
$158.79our TP
$138.08price
$140.38mean
$122
$170

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.08: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.6% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.6% YoY), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)550.5
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$19.0B
EV/EBITDA12.2
Profit Mgn0.1%
ROE0.7%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.66
Dividend3.10%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
8.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
5.0
Value Rank
5.2
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $128.40Resistance $138.81

Price Targets

$132
$159
A.Upside-11.6%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.6% YoY), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $138.08: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $132.12. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $158.79 (-11.6% upside). Prior stop was $132.12. Stop-loss: $132.12.

What are the risks of investing in GPC?

Target reached (-11.6% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.6% YoY), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is GPC overvalued or undervalued?

Genuine Parts Company trades at a P/E of 550.5 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPC?

19 analysts cover GPC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $140.

What does Genuine Parts Company do?Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions....

Company is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions. We serve our customers from more than 10,800 locations, primarily in North America, Europe, and Australasia (primarily Australia and New Zealand). We offer outstanding service, an industry-leading assortment of replacement parts, extensive supply chain and distribution capabilities, and enhanced technology solutions.

Related stocks: GTX (Garrett Motion Inc.) · DORM (Dorman Products, Inc.) · PHIN (PHINIA Inc.) · GNTX (Gentex Corporation) · ALV (Autoliv, Inc.)
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