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General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. and affiliates (22.0%).

General Mills is a global packaged food company selling cereals, snacks, meals, pet food, and yogurt under brands including Cheerios, Nature Valley, Blue Buffalo, Häagen-Dazs, and Old El Paso. It earns revenue through retail grocery, foodservice, and convenience channels in over... Read more

$33.13+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#20 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield12.56%
IncomeYield7.23%(5y avg 3.61%)Payout59.41%sustainable
Stop $31.81Target $36.09(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$40.11+21.1%19 analysts
$36.09our TP
$33.13price
$40.11mean
$57

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. and affiliates (22.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — General Mills, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 45%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. and affiliates (22.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$18.0B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta-0.03
Dividend7.23%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C10.66bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$90+171.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart Inc. and affiliates22%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart Inc. and its affiliates (Walmart) accounted for 22 percent of our consolidated net sales and 31 percent of net sales of our North America Retail segment'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.7
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.79Resistance $35.94

Price Targets

$32
$36
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GIS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. and affiliates (22.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $31.81. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.09 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $31.81. Stop-loss: $31.81.

What are the risks of investing in GIS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. and affiliates (22.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is GIS overvalued or undervalued?

General Mills, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GIS?

29 analysts cover GIS with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $40.

What does General Mills, Inc. do?General Mills is a global packaged food company selling cereals, snacks, meals, pet food, and yogurt under brands...

General Mills is a global packaged food company selling cereals, snacks, meals, pet food, and yogurt under brands including Cheerios, Nature Valley, Blue Buffalo, Häagen-Dazs, and Old El Paso. It earns revenue through retail grocery, foodservice, and convenience channels in over 100 countries, with North America Retail as its largest segment.

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