Revenue has been declining approximately 2% year-over-year and business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the price having reached its near-term resistance ceiling and reward-to-risk turning clearly unfavorable — the setup argues for patience at best and exit at worst, with high short interest as the primary contrarian counterweight.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Downtrend Declining Ma↑Improving
- Declining Revenue Quality Concerns→Stable
- Target Reached Unfavorable Setup↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.
Conagra Brands is a branded, pure-play consumer packaged goods food company headquartered in Chicago, with brands including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, and Slim Jim sold through Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Conagra Brands' largest customer, Walmart and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 28% in each of the prior two years. The company sells branded food — including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim — through four reporting segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. Conagra employed approximately 18,300 people as of May 25, 2025, with 44% covered by collective bargaining agreements.
Conagra earns revenue from branded, value-added consumer food products sold through retail grocery, drug, club, and convenience channels plus foodservice customers such as restaurants, schools, and healthcare facilities, supplemented by e-commerce sales and licensing arrangements for brands like P.F. Chang's, Bertolli, and Wendy's. Key input costs include wheat, corn, oats, vegetable oils, beef, pork, poultry, dairy, steel, and aluminum, which the company partially manages through commodity derivatives and contracted pricing with vendors, though it does not fully hedge exposure. Conagra holds an equity-method joint venture in Ardent Mills, a flour-milling business, and continues to invest in automation, connected data, and artificial intelligence across its manufacturing footprint. As of fiscal year-end, the company carried approximately $8.07 billion in total debt, including $7.02 billion of senior notes, and relies on commercial paper markets for ongoing funding needs.
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Conagra faces a distinct regulatory exposure around food-safety and labeling claims: the 10-K flags evolving FDA requirements for allergen and nutrition labeling, updated criteria for using the term 'healthy' on packaging, and possible bans on certain ingredients or packaging materials as sources of rising compliance costs. The company has issued product recalls in the past and discloses ongoing food-product litigation, while non-compliance under the strict-liability standards of the Federal Meat, Poultry Products, and Egg Products Inspection Acts can trigger fines, injunctions, or recalls without any finding of intent. Layered onto this is a leadership transition: the Board named John Brase, previously President and COO of J.M. Smucker, as President and CEO effective June 1, 2026.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 'CEOs Pushed White House to Delay Ultra-Processed Food Definition' - Bloomberg — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Conagra Announces Retirement Of COO Tom McGough, Effective September 4; COO Role To Be Eliminated — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $17 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $15 — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $14 — benzinga Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T15:37:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart, Inc.29%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025 and 28% for fiscal 2024 and 2023.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMConagra's Board approved John Brase, previously President and COO of The J.M. Smucker Company, as the company's new President and CEO, effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Sean Connolly. Terms set in an April 8, 2026 at-will letter agreement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.78. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.96 (-17.1% upside). Prior stop was $14.78. Stop-loss: $14.78.
Target reached (-17.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
ConAgra Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover CAG with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $14.
What does ConAgra Brands, Inc. do?Conagra Brands is a branded, pure-play consumer packaged goods food company headquartered in Chicago, with brands...
Conagra Brands is a branded, pure-play consumer packaged goods food company headquartered in Chicago, with brands including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, and Slim Jim sold through Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice segments. Walmart is Conagra's largest customer, accounting for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and the company employed approximately 18,300 people, 44% under collective bargaining agreements.