Revenue has been declining approximately 2% year-over-year and business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the price having reached its near-term resistance ceiling and reward-to-risk turning clearly unfavorable — the setup argues for patience at best and exit at worst, with high short interest as the primary contrarian counterweight.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Downtrend Declining Ma↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue Quality Concerns→Stable
- Target Reached Unfavorable Setup↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.32: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.98; Below-average business quality.
Conagra Brands is a North American branded food company selling shelf-stable, refrigerated/frozen, and foodservice products under brands like Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, and Slim Jim. Its largest customer, Walmart and its affiliates, accounted for... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.32: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.98; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Conagra Brands' largest customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 28% in each of the prior two years. The company organizes its branded food business — including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, and Slim Jim — into four reporting segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, alongside an unconsolidated equity investment in flour miller Ardent Mills.
Conagra earns revenue selling branded, value-added food products to grocery, drug, convenience, club, and foodservice channels directly and through distributors and e-commerce platforms, competing against both national branded rivals and private-label alternatives on quality, innovation, value, and brand loyalty. Input costs are exposed to a broad range of agricultural commodities and packaging materials, with prices subject to weather, trade barriers, tariffs, and government agricultural programs; the company uses derivative instruments to economically hedge a portion of forecasted future consumption and leans on productivity and pricing initiatives to offset higher input costs. Some of Conagra's product lines operate under licensing arrangements, including a Dolly Parton partnership and licenses for the P.F. Chang's, Bertolli, Wendy's, and Libby's trademarks, while the company separately licenses out its own Alexia and Marie Callender's trademarks to third parties. Regulatory oversight spans the USDA, FDA, FTC, OSHA, and EPA, along with counterpart agencies in Canada and Mexico given the company's International segment.
Show full overview
Conagra's clearest concentration risk is a single named retailer rather than a commodity or geography: Walmart and its affiliates have represented 28-29% of consolidated net sales in each of the past three fiscal years, a share that has ticked up rather than diversified. Because Walmart sets its own shelf-space, pricing, and inventory expectations, any shift in that relationship — reduced allocation, private-label substitution on Conagra's shelf space, or renegotiated trade-promotion terms — would fall on nearly three of every ten dollars of Conagra's net sales, a materially larger exposure than the company's next-largest, unnamed customers.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Conagra Gears Up For Q1 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts — benzinga Sep 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Deutsche Bank Maintains Hold on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $13 — benzinga Sep 18, 2026 positive
- NEWS Top 3 Risk Off Stocks That May Collapse In August — benzinga Aug 24, 2026 negative
- NEWS 'CEOs Pushed White House to Delay Ultra-Processed Food Definition' - Bloomberg — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Conagra Announces Retirement Of COO Tom McGough, Effective September 4; COO Role To Be Eliminated — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-09-26T04:41:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart, Inc.29%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025 and 28% for fiscal 2024 and 2023.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUMConagra's board approved John Brase, former President and COO of The J.M. Smucker Company and a 30-year P&G veteran, as President and CEO effective June 1, 2026; he also joins the Board and its Executive Committee.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.32: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.98; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.79. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.03 (-9.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.79. Stop-loss: $13.79.
Target reached (-9.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
ConAgra Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover CAG with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $14.
What does ConAgra Brands, Inc. do?Conagra Brands is a North American branded food company selling shelf-stable, refrigerated/frozen, and foodservice...
Conagra Brands is a North American branded food company selling shelf-stable, refrigerated/frozen, and foodservice products under brands like Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, and Slim Jim. Its largest customer, Walmart and its affiliates, accounted for about 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and it holds a joint-venture stake in flour miller Ardent Mills.