Conagra scores poorly on quality, has declining revenue, and trades above the analyst target, making it a value trap risk despite a low forward P/E.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor↑Improving
- Target Exceeded↑Improving
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jul 15, 2026
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.10: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.
Conagra Brands, headquartered in Chicago, makes branded packaged foods including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP. It reports four segments, Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.10: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
About ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Conagra Brands sold roughly 29% of its fiscal 2026 consolidated net sales to a single customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, a share that was also 29% in fiscal 2025 and 28% in fiscal 2024. The Chicago company, incorporated in Nebraska in 1919 and reincorporated in Delaware in 1976, reports four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International and Foodservice. It describes itself as a pure-play branded consumer packaged goods food company that started as a Midwestern flour-milling business.
Conagra sells branded, value-added food, plus foodservice items and ingredients, through chain, wholesale, value, cooperative, club and independent grocery, pharmacy, convenience and foodservice customers, both directly and through distributors, and online. Grocery & Snacks covers shelf-stable products in U.S. retail, Refrigerated & Frozen covers temperature-controlled products, International sells outside the United States, and Foodservice supplies meals, entrees, sauces and custom-manufactured culinary products to restaurants and other establishments. Most raw materials are commodities, and the company hedges a portion of forecasted consumption with derivative instruments while seeking to offset higher input costs through productivity and pricing. Some products are sold under licenses, including Dolly Parton, P.F. Chang's, Bertolli, Wendy's and Libby's; many are perpetual, while others must be periodically renegotiated or renewed. Its most significant equity method investment is the Ardent Mills milling joint venture. Competition comes from widely advertised branded foods and private brand items, and some competitors are larger. Frozen sales run marginally higher in winter and pie sales peak in November and December.
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Retailer concentration is the clearest lens. With Walmart at roughly 29% of net sales, a reduction in its purchases could weigh on consolidated results. In a July 2026 Form 8-K, the company disclosed that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Thomas McGough notified it of his decision to retire no later than September 4, 2026, and that the chief operating officer position will be eliminated upon his retirement.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 2, 2026
Recent Developments — ConAgra Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Conagra Brands, Lowers Price Target to $16 — benzinga Oct 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Conagra Brands, Raises Price Target to $14 — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Reiterates Sector Perform on Conagra Brands, Maintains $14 Price Target — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Dow Dips Over 400 Points Following PCE Data: Investor Sentiment Improves, Greed Index Remains in ‘Fear’ Zone — benzinga Oct 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Crude Oil Rises Over 1%; Conagra Brands Earnings Top Views — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart and its affiliates29%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 29% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2026 and 2025 and 28% for fiscal 2024.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-28Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP and COO Thomas McGough notified the company July 24, 2026 he will retire no later than Sept 4, 2026; the COO position will be eliminated upon his retirement. No successor named; no reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Revenue shrinking — -1.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.10: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.04. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $12.37 reached (−18.1% from $15.10); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $14.04. Stop-loss: $14.04.
Target reached (-18.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
ConAgra Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts rate CAG, with a consensus score of 2.6/5. 15 analysts publish price targets averaging $14.
What does ConAgra Brands, Inc. do?Conagra Brands, headquartered in Chicago, makes branded packaged foods including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy...
Conagra Brands, headquartered in Chicago, makes branded packaged foods including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP. It reports four segments, Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International and Foodservice, selling through retail and foodservice channels. Walmart and its affiliates were its largest customer at approximately 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026.