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GEVOGevo, Inc.Hold5.4·$1.57+3.62%
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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Market cap $376M below $400M minimum.

Gevo, Inc. (Nasdaq: GEVO), a Delaware corporation founded in 2005, is a growth-oriented company that focuses on hard to decarbonize market sectors such as jet fuel, certain specialty fuels, on-road fuels, chemicals and materials, and certain products for the food chain such as... Read more

$1.57+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#28 of 44 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.92%
Stop $1.46Target $1.72(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$5.36+241.6%4 analysts
$1.72our TP
$1.57price
$5.36mean
$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Market cap $376M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Market cap $376M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-17

Recent Developments — Gevo, Inc.

Generated 2026-08-31T11:27:04Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
Market cap $376M below $400M minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)25.3
Mkt Cap$376M
EV/EBITDA-20.7
Profit Mgn-119.9%
ROE-55.5%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.05
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV579%elevated
Max Pain$2+27.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Effective as of August 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Gevo, Inc. ("Gevo" or the "Company") approved the appointment of Todd Werpy to the Board as a Class II director, with a current term that will expire at the annual meeting of stockholders to be held in 2027. Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.1
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
3.9

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
4.9
Moat
5.1
Fcf Quality
5.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.1
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 4.9%)No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.48Resistance $1.76

Price Targets

$1
$2
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
! Market cap $376M below $400M minimum
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEVO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Market cap $376M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Market cap $376M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $1.72 (+9.6%), stop $1.46 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GEVO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1.72 (+9.2% upside). Target $1.72 (+9.6%), stop $1.46 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $1.46.

What are the risks of investing in GEVO?

DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $5.36 vs price $1.57 — ratio 3.4×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Market cap $376M below $400M minimum.

Is GEVO overvalued or undervalued?

Gevo, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GEVO?

11 analysts cover GEVO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Gevo, Inc. do?Gevo, Inc. (Nasdaq: GEVO), a Delaware corporation founded in 2005, is a growth-oriented company that focuses on hard to...

Gevo, Inc. (Nasdaq: GEVO), a Delaware corporation founded in 2005, is a growth-oriented company that focuses on hard to decarbonize market sectors such as jet fuel, certain specialty fuels, on-road fuels, chemicals and materials, and certain products for the food chain such as protein and feeds made as co-products from our processes. Each of the market areas that Gevo focuses on has the common need for carbon-based products and is not conducive to full electrification or hydrogen.

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