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ASHAshland Inc.Sell6.1·$69.10
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and positive momentum with volume accumulation reflect genuine balance-sheet strength and recent buying interest; however, three of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates with an average shortfall of roughly 7%, the price has reached its resistance target leaving virtually no upside, and an overbought RSI of 79 alongside 14% short interest suggest the risk/reward has deteriorated to a level that warrants reducing exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Price Momentum↑Improving
  • Price Exhaustion Negative Return↑Improving
  • Strong Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ashland Inc. (ASH) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.10 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the ticker symbol "ASH". The terms "Ashland," the "Company," "we" and "our" used herein refer to Ashland Inc., a Delaware Corporation, and its predecessors, and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where... Read more

$69.10+1.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#9 of 44 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.52%
IncomeYield2.43%(5y avg 1.89%)Payout106.73%at-risk
Stop $65.72Target $69.76(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$80.18+16.0%11 analysts
$69.76our TP
$69.10price
$80.18mean
$90

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.10 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.5
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE4.0%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.39
Dividend2.43%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C5.53bearish
IV45%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    ASHLAND INC. | | | Date: | August 10, 2026 | By: | /s/ Robin E. Lampkin | | | Robin E. Lampkin Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary * * *
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-07-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    of this Current Report on Form 8-K (the "Form 8-K") related to the Cooperation Agreement (as defined below) is incorporated by reference herein. Item 5.02.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.6
Quality Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
4.0
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.75Resistance $76.02

Price Targets

$66
$70
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.0% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.10 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $65.72. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.76 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $65.72. Stop-loss: $65.72.

What are the risks of investing in ASH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is ASH overvalued or undervalued?

Ashland Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.5 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASH?

16 analysts cover ASH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $80.

What does Ashland Inc. do?Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the ticker symbol "ASH". The terms "Ashland,"...

Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the ticker symbol "ASH". The terms "Ashland," the "Company," "we" and "our" used herein refer to Ashland Inc., a Delaware Corporation, and its predecessors, and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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