Value
8.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
GEVO · Why this verdict
Why Gevo (GEVO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gevo's analyst target was rejected as implausible and the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a failed momentum gate, while quality sits just below the engine's floor despite positive free cash flow — the setup argues for exiting rather than holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine flagged the raw analyst price target of $5.41 as implausible against the $1.64 price (a 3.3x ratio) and rejected it, falling back to a technical take-profit level instead. Bear case | A more plausible, revised analyst target should emerge, or the fallback technical target should hold up as a reasonable near-term ceiling over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets can occasionally be correct even when they look statistically extreme, especially for a name with a real shot at a business-model inflection like sustainable aviation fuel offtake. | ||
Gevo is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a -5.4% monthly moving-average slope and falling on-balance volume, and the momentum score has failed the engine's 4.5 minimum gate at 3.7. Engine gate (failed) | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the momentum score should rise back above 4.5 over the next 12 months to reverse this failed gate. | →Stable |
| CounterA death-cross pattern paired with improving MACD, as flagged in the recovery setup, can mark a bottoming process rather than confirm further downside. | ||
Gevo's quality score of 3.9 sits just below the 4.0 floor, even though the business is free-cash-flow positive with a 10% FCF margin, held back by having no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The quality score should rise above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as free cash flow generation continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA commodity-adjacent specialty chemicals business without a moat may structurally cap its quality score regardless of near-term cash flow performance. | ||
Insiders sold a net of roughly 565,000 shares over 90 days (11 sells vs. 2 buys, a bearish signal), while the put/call ratio of 2.75 shows options positioning skewed toward puts. Insider | Insider activity should shift toward neutral or net buying, and the put/call ratio should decline toward 1.0, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales can reflect personal liquidity needs or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to a view on the stock, and a high put/call ratio on a small-cap name can be driven by a handful of large hedging trades. | ||
The engine flagged the raw analyst price target of $5.41 as implausible against the $1.64 price (a 3.3x ratio) and rejected it, falling back to a technical take-profit level instead.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- A more plausible, revised analyst target should emerge, or the fallback technical target should hold up as a reasonable near-term ceiling over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets can occasionally be correct even when they look statistically extreme, especially for a name with a real shot at a business-model inflection like sustainable aviation fuel offtake.
Gevo is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a -5.4% monthly moving-average slope and falling on-balance volume, and the momentum score has failed the engine's 4.5 minimum gate at 3.7.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the momentum score should rise back above 4.5 over the next 12 months to reverse this failed gate.
CounterA death-cross pattern paired with improving MACD, as flagged in the recovery setup, can mark a bottoming process rather than confirm further downside.
Gevo's quality score of 3.9 sits just below the 4.0 floor, even though the business is free-cash-flow positive with a 10% FCF margin, held back by having no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months as free cash flow generation continues.
CounterA commodity-adjacent specialty chemicals business without a moat may structurally cap its quality score regardless of near-term cash flow performance.
Insiders sold a net of roughly 565,000 shares over 90 days (11 sells vs. 2 buys, a bearish signal), while the put/call ratio of 2.75 shows options positioning skewed toward puts.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward neutral or net buying, and the put/call ratio should decline toward 1.0, over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales can reflect personal liquidity needs or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to a view on the stock, and a high put/call ratio on a small-cap name can be driven by a handful of large hedging trades.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 5.8%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 298%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.3 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $379,753 (0.120% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 147%
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $316M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 11, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -56% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Catalyst at 3.7, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Implausible Analyst Target Rejected
Trip ifThe engine's fallback technical take-profit target is exceeded by more than 20%, or a revised analyst target within 1.5x of price is issued.
- P2Confirmed Momentum Downtrend
Trip ifThe momentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.7, clearing the failed gate.
- P3Quality Below Floor Despite Positive Fcf
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.9.
- P4Insider Selling And Elevated Put Call
Trip ifNet insider share activity turns positive and exceeds 100,000 net shares bought over 90 days.