Value
8.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
GEVO · Why this verdict
Why Gevo (GEVO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 4.9%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 258%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,690,715 (0.444% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High IV: 130%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $381M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- INSIDER:0.44%=HEAVY
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -49% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.