Value
8.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
GEVO · Why this verdict
Why Gevo (GEVO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 4.9%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 236%
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $369,405 (0.098% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High IV: 136%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $376M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Catalyst at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.