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Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments... Read more

$87.67+8.7% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#3 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $81.58Target $95.38(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$99.90+14.0%7 analysts
$95.38our TP
$87.67price
$99.90mean
$143

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 53%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (4)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (58 sells, 0.21% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)0.0
Mkt Cap$16.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.5%
ROE51.2%
Rev Growth52.0%
Beta-0.05
Dividend2.08%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$40-54.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $70.71Resistance $97.33

Price Targets

$82
$95
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KSPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $81.58. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KSPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.38 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $81.58. Stop-loss: $81.58.

What are the risks of investing in KSPI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (4); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (58 sells, 0.21% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is KSPI overvalued or undervalued?

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 0.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KSPI?

11 analysts cover KSPI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $100.

What does Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - do?Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for...

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments segment offers a platform that facilities transactions between and among merchants and consumers. This segment provides ways for consumers to pay for shopping transactions and regular household bills, as well as make peer to peer payments; and enables merchants to accept payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor merchant turnover. It also offers proprietary data, which facilitates informed decision-making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects both online and offline merchants with consumers, enabling merchants to increase sales through an omnichannel strategy and allowing consumers to purchase products and services from various merchants. This segment operates marketplaces through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person; e-Commerce, which allows consumers to shop anywhere and anytime with free delivery; and Kaspi Travel that allows consumers to book domestic and international flights, domestic rail tickets, and international package holidays. It also enhances merchants' sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with buy-now-pay-later, finance and savings products, and merchants with merchant finance services. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; e-grocery; classifieds; and storage and processing of information services. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

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