Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.5x
- ▸PEG: 3.85
EXPD · Why this verdict
Why Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 14% and a most-recent quarter surprise of approximately 29% — demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering well above street expectations. Earnings | The company delivers positive EPS surprises in at least three of the next four quarters, sustaining the track record of consistent outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio signals that options markets are positioned for potential downside; if the declining on-balance volume reflects institutional distribution, the ownership trend may be working against the earnings momentum. | ||
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 24 times earnings with a PEG ratio of roughly 3.75, and the current price sits with only about 1.2% headroom to the nearby resistance target — a combination that produces a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.3-to-1, materially below what a favorable setup requires. Value | Either analyst consensus price targets are revised upward by more than 15% within the next two quarters — reflecting earnings upgrades that justify the multiple — or the stock pulls back to establish a more attractive entry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the consistent earnings beat pattern triggers upward revisions to both estimates and analyst targets, the current premium multiple could be validated and the resistance target could shift substantially higher, making today's price appear attractive in retrospect. | ||
The company generates a return on equity of approximately 37% alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — capital return metrics that rank favorably versus peers and suggest disciplined capital allocation. Quality | Return on equity remains above 28% over the next four quarters, confirming that capital deployment discipline is maintained even as freight volumes fluctuate. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity at elevated levels can be inflated by a shrinking equity base from buybacks rather than genuine compounding — if equity base contraction is the primary driver, the metric overstates the true economic return on the underlying business. | ||
Price momentum is constructive — a golden cross is in place, RSI is 57, and MACD is bullish — but the stock is trading just below near-term resistance with only 1.2% of headroom, limiting how much of the technical strength can translate into near-term price gains. Momentum | Analyst targets are revised upward by more than 10% within the next two quarters, shifting the resistance ceiling and allowing momentum to extend meaningfully beyond the current target. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong technical momentum in a breakout setup can carry a stock through resistance, particularly when supported by an improving earnings trend; if buying pressure sustains, the 1.2% headroom may prove a minor technical ceiling rather than a binding constraint. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 14% and a most-recent quarter surprise of approximately 29% — demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering well above street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers positive EPS surprises in at least three of the next four quarters, sustaining the track record of consistent outperformance.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio signals that options markets are positioned for potential downside; if the declining on-balance volume reflects institutional distribution, the ownership trend may be working against the earnings momentum.
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 24 times earnings with a PEG ratio of roughly 3.75, and the current price sits with only about 1.2% headroom to the nearby resistance target — a combination that produces a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.3-to-1, materially below what a favorable setup requires.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- Either analyst consensus price targets are revised upward by more than 15% within the next two quarters — reflecting earnings upgrades that justify the multiple — or the stock pulls back to establish a more attractive entry.
CounterIf the consistent earnings beat pattern triggers upward revisions to both estimates and analyst targets, the current premium multiple could be validated and the resistance target could shift substantially higher, making today's price appear attractive in retrospect.
The company generates a return on equity of approximately 37% alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — capital return metrics that rank favorably versus peers and suggest disciplined capital allocation.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 28% over the next four quarters, confirming that capital deployment discipline is maintained even as freight volumes fluctuate.
CounterReturn on equity at elevated levels can be inflated by a shrinking equity base from buybacks rather than genuine compounding — if equity base contraction is the primary driver, the metric overstates the true economic return on the underlying business.
Price momentum is constructive — a golden cross is in place, RSI is 57, and MACD is bullish — but the stock is trading just below near-term resistance with only 1.2% of headroom, limiting how much of the technical strength can translate into near-term price gains.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward by more than 10% within the next two quarters, shifting the resistance ceiling and allowing momentum to extend meaningfully beyond the current target.
CounterStrong technical momentum in a breakout setup can carry a stock through resistance, particularly when supported by an improving earnings trend; if buying pressure sustains, the 1.2% headroom may prove a minor technical ceiling rather than a binding constraint.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Expeditors International has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 14% above consensus, underpinned by strong capital returns including a 37% return on equity, but the stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 24 times earnings with a PEG ratio near 3.75 and barely 1.2% upside to the near-term resistance target — the technical momentum is constructive but the risk/reward at current prices does not favor new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 97.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-4.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-4.55
Upside
-23.4%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-4.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -4.55 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Catalyst at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Value at 4.2, and Sentiment at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -4.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sustained Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the four-quarter uninterrupted positive-surprise track record.
- P2Premium Valuation No Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice declines more than 10% from current levels to below $147, restoring meaningful upside to the analyst target and improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
- P3Strong Capital Returns
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a deterioration in the quality of capital deployment.
- P4Momentum Runs Ahead Of Headroom
Trip ifPrice rises above $180 for 3 consecutive sessions, confirming that momentum has broken well past the current resistance ceiling and the near-term headroom constraint is resolved.