Skip to main content

Centene Corporation (CNC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.84: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Centene is the largest U.S. managed care company focused on underserved populations, with $194.8 billion in 2025 revenues and 27.6 million members. It is the largest Medicaid insurer (12.5M members in 30 states), largest ACA Marketplace carrier (5.5M members), and largest... Read more

$57.84+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#9 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield23.81%
Stop $54.15Target $58.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$54.94-5.0%17 analysts
$58.55our TP
$57.84price
$54.94mean
$40
$70

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.84: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Centene Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid (57.0%)
Target reached (-15.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$28.8B
EV/EBITDA7.4
Profit Mgn-3.6%
ROE-26.0%
Rev Growth5.1%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV49%normal
Max Pain$24-58.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMedicaid57%
    10-K Item 1: 'our Medicaid, Commercial, Medicare and Other segments accounted for 57%, 21%, 19% and 3%, respectively, of our total external revenues'
  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida and New York Medicaid contracts
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid contracts with the states of Florida and New York accounted for approximately 10% or more of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenues individually'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Theodore Pienkos appointed Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective March 18, 2026. Previously Deputy Corporate Controller since August 2024. Base salary $440K, 60% target bonus. No predecessor departure cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Operating Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
4.4
Moat
4.4
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
2.7
52w Position
8.2
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.36Resistance $59.74

Price Targets

$54
$59
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.84: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $54.15. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.55 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $54.15. Stop-loss: $54.15.

What are the risks of investing in CNC?

Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid (57.0%); Target reached (-15.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).

Is CNC overvalued or undervalued?

Centene Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNC?

26 analysts cover CNC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Centene Corporation do?Centene is the largest U.S. managed care company focused on underserved populations, with $194.8 billion in 2025...

Centene is the largest U.S. managed care company focused on underserved populations, with $194.8 billion in 2025 revenues and 27.6 million members. It is the largest Medicaid insurer (12.5M members in 30 states), largest ACA Marketplace carrier (5.5M members), and largest stand-alone PDP provider (8.1M members).

Related stocks: CI (The Cigna Group) · OSCR (Oscar Health, Inc.) · CVS (CVS Health Corporation) · ALHC (Alignment Healthcare, Inc.) · HUM (Humana Inc.)