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Centene Corporation (CNC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Centene is the nation's largest managed care company focused on underserved populations, operating Medicaid (57%), Commercial (21%), Medicare (19%), and Other (3%) segments across the US, serving 27.6 million members with total revenues of $194.8 billion in 2025. It is the... Read more

$53.61-0.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#8 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $49.89Target $53.53(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$51.35-4.2%17 analysts
$53.53our TP
$53.61price
$51.35mean
$37
$70

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: governmental assistance or entitlement programs
Target reached (-13.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$26.7B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn-3.6%
ROE-26.0%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$22-59.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomergovernmental assistance or entitlement programs
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our business relates to the provision of managed care programs and selected services to individuals receiving benefits under governmental assistance or entitlement programs'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Theodore Pienkos (44) appointed as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective March 18, 2026. Previously Deputy Corporate Controller since August 2024. Base salary $440,000; target bonus 60% of base.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
6.3

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Operating Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
4.4
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Growth Rank
2.7
Value Rank
9.1
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
92 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.79Resistance $54.62

Price Targets

$50
$54
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $53.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $49.89. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.53 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $49.89. Stop-loss: $49.89.

What are the risks of investing in CNC?

Concentration risk — Customer: governmental assistance or entitlement programs; Target reached (-13.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is CNC overvalued or undervalued?

Centene Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNC?

26 analysts cover CNC with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Centene Corporation do?Centene is the nation's largest managed care company focused on underserved populations, operating Medicaid (57%),...

Centene is the nation's largest managed care company focused on underserved populations, operating Medicaid (57%), Commercial (21%), Medicare (19%), and Other (3%) segments across the US, serving 27.6 million members with total revenues of $194.8 billion in 2025. It is the largest Medicaid and Marketplace insurer and the largest stand-alone PDP provider in the US.

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