Revenue has grown 38% year-over-year with free cash flow converting at 337% of net income, yet two consecutive earnings misses averaging more than 20% below estimate and only 3.6% of headroom to the analyst target make the reward-to-risk geometry unfavorable for new capital at current prices — the setup favors patience over action.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Earnings Miss Execution Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries, providing LNG regasification services and natural gas, LNG, power, and steam sales under long-term take-or-pay contracts. Revenue comes primarily from fixed... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Excelerate Energy, Inc.
About Excelerate Energy, Inc.
Excelerate Energy controls or operates 11 floating regasification terminals plus one onshore terminal across 10 countries — Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Finland, Germany, Iraq, Jamaica, Pakistan, the UAE, and the United States — holding approximately $3.3 billion in minimum contracted terminal services backlog and $17.0 billion in contracted LNG, gas, and power agreements as of December 31, 2025. The company employs 1,046 colleagues, including 698 seafarers. Excelerate is the largest provider of regasified LNG capacity in Argentina, Bangladesh, Finland, Jamaica, and the UAE.
Excelerate earns revenue through two streams: terminal services (fixed daily rates under long-term take-or-pay contracts with state-owned energy companies and transmission operators, weighted average remaining term of 5.8 years) and sales of natural gas, LNG, power, and steam (weighted average remaining term of 9.3 years). Terminal service customers are generally responsible for fuel, port fees, and LNG boil-off; Excelerate provides crew, technical, and operational services at a daily rate subject to contractual inflation escalators. Key 2025 developments included completing the acquisition of New Fortress Energy's Jamaica business — adding the Montego Bay and Old Harbour LNG terminals plus the Clarendon combined heat and power plant — and signing a five-year Iraq Project agreement with Iraq's Ministry of Electricity for up to 500 MMscf/d, expected to commence in the third quarter of 2026. Excelerate sources LNG primarily through long-term offtake agreements, pricing sales back-to-back with purchase terms to limit commodity margin exposure.
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Near-term cash generation depends on a small number of customers: in 2025, three customers each accounted for more than 10% of revenues at times, and the 10-K warns that loss of any one of them could materially reduce revenues. Contracts contain termination rights for extended force majeure and material breach, and some customers hold optional early-exit provisions upon payment of termination fees. Political risk compounds customer credit risk: Bangladesh, where Excelerate operates two terminals and signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with Petrobangla in November 2023, experienced a change in government in 2024 — an event the 10-K specifically cites as a political risk example.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
From Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-20Recent Developments — Excelerate Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Estimate Excelerate Energy (EE) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (EE) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) Beats Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations But Stock Drops - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) Beats Q1 CY2026 Sales Expectations But Stock Drops - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
Generated 2026-07-20T05:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers over 10% of revenues10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025 and 2024, we had three and two customers, respectively, that, at times, accounted for over 10% of our revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.61. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.19 (-4.4% upside). Prior stop was $36.61. Stop-loss: $36.61.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Excelerate Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.7 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover EE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Excelerate Energy, Inc. do?Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries,...
Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries, providing LNG regasification services and natural gas, LNG, power, and steam sales under long-term take-or-pay contracts. Revenue comes primarily from fixed daily-rate terminal services agreements and integrated commodity sales to state-owned energy companies in Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Finland, Germany, Iraq, Jamaica, Pakistan, the UAE, and the United States.