Revenue has grown 38% year-over-year with free cash flow converting at 337% of net income, yet two consecutive earnings misses averaging more than 20% below estimate and only 3.6% of headroom to the analyst target make the reward-to-risk geometry unfavorable for new capital at current prices — the setup favors patience over action.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Earnings Miss Execution Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.29: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries, providing LNG regasification services and natural gas, LNG, power, and steam sales under long-term take-or-pay contracts. Revenue comes primarily from fixed... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.29: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Excelerate Energy, Inc.
About Excelerate Energy, Inc.
Excelerate Energy controls or operates 11 floating regasification terminals plus one onshore terminal across 10 countries — Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Finland, Germany, Iraq, Jamaica, Pakistan, the UAE, and the United States — holding approximately $3.3 billion in minimum contracted terminal services backlog and $17.0 billion in contracted LNG, gas, and power agreements as of December 31, 2025. The company employs 1,046 colleagues, including 698 seafarers. Excelerate is the largest provider of regasified LNG capacity in Argentina, Bangladesh, Finland, Jamaica, and the UAE.
Excelerate earns revenue through two streams: terminal services (fixed daily rates under long-term take-or-pay contracts with state-owned energy companies and transmission operators, weighted average remaining term of 5.8 years) and sales of natural gas, LNG, power, and steam (weighted average remaining term of 9.3 years). Terminal service customers are generally responsible for fuel, port fees, and LNG boil-off; Excelerate provides crew, technical, and operational services at a daily rate subject to contractual inflation escalators. Key 2025 developments included completing the acquisition of New Fortress Energy's Jamaica business — adding the Montego Bay and Old Harbour LNG terminals plus the Clarendon combined heat and power plant — and signing a five-year Iraq Project agreement with Iraq's Ministry of Electricity for up to 500 MMscf/d, expected to commence in the third quarter of 2026. Excelerate sources LNG primarily through long-term offtake agreements, pricing sales back-to-back with purchase terms to limit commodity margin exposure.
Show full overview
Near-term cash generation depends on a small number of customers: in 2025, three customers each accounted for more than 10% of revenues at times, and the 10-K warns that loss of any one of them could materially reduce revenues. Contracts contain termination rights for extended force majeure and material breach, and some customers hold optional early-exit provisions upon payment of termination fees. Political risk compounds customer credit risk: Bangladesh, where Excelerate operates two terminals and signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with Petrobangla in November 2023, experienced a change in government in 2024 — an event the 10-K specifically cites as a political risk example.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
From Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Excelerate Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (EE) Expected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Excelerate Energy, Inc. $EE is Ranger Investment Management L.P.'s 8th Largest Position - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Analysts Estimate Excelerate Energy (EE) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) Stock Rating Lowered by Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Excelerate Energy (EE) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:33:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree customers over 10% of revenues10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025 and 2024, we had three and two customers, respectively, that, at times, accounted for over 10% of our revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.29: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.96. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $37.81 (+13.6% upside). Prior stop was $30.96. Stop-loss: $30.96.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Excelerate Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover EE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Excelerate Energy, Inc. do?Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries,...
Excelerate Energy owns and operates 11 floating regasification terminals and one onshore terminal across 10 countries, providing LNG regasification services and natural gas, LNG, power, and steam sales under long-term take-or-pay contracts. Revenue comes primarily from fixed daily-rate terminal services agreements and integrated commodity sales to state-owned energy companies in Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Finland, Germany, Iraq, Jamaica, Pakistan, the UAE, and the United States.