Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
EE · Why this verdict
Why Excelerate Energy (EE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue has grown 38% year-over-year with free cash flow converting at 337% of net income, yet two consecutive earnings misses averaging more than 20% below estimate and only 3.6% of headroom to the analyst target make the reward-to-risk geometry unfavorable for new capital at current prices — the setup favors patience over action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 38% year-over-year, and a PEG ratio of 0.23 indicates the market is not fully pricing in the growth trajectory relative to the earnings multiple on offer. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 2 reported fiscal periods. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses — most recently by more than 22% below the estimate — suggest the growth rate may not be translating into earnings power at the rate analysts expect, undermining the low-PEG argument. | ||
Free cash flow has converted at 337% of net income with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, suggesting the business generates substantially more cash than its reported earnings alone indicate. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion relative to net income stays above 150% for the next 2 reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high free-cash-flow-to-income ratio can reflect working-capital timing or non-cash accounting effects rather than a structural cash-generation advantage; if these effects reverse, the quality picture would deteriorate sharply. | ||
The two most recent quarters each missed consensus estimates by more than 19%, reversing an earlier beat, and management has not provided formal guidance — leaving forecasts poorly anchored and near-term execution credibility impaired. Earnings | The company delivers a positive EPS surprise exceeding +5% in the next reported quarter, beginning to repair the miss pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single beat could reflect timing or one-time items rather than durable execution improvement, making it difficult to declare the miss risk resolved on the basis of one quarter alone. | ||
With only 3.6% of potential upside to the analyst consensus target and downside nearly three times larger at 10%, the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.4-to-1 at the current price does not adequately compensate for holding a position. Price targets | The analyst consensus target is revised upward above $42 (more than 20% above the current price of $35.04), restoring a favorable risk/reward ratio and asymmetric setup. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong price momentum — the stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising OBV and MACD at 9.1 — indicates the technical trend has not confirmed the thin fundamental upside, and the stock could continue higher on momentum alone. | ||
Revenue has grown 38% year-over-year, and a PEG ratio of 0.23 indicates the market is not fully pricing in the growth trajectory relative to the earnings multiple on offer.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next 2 reported fiscal periods.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses — most recently by more than 22% below the estimate — suggest the growth rate may not be translating into earnings power at the rate analysts expect, undermining the low-PEG argument.
Free cash flow has converted at 337% of net income with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, suggesting the business generates substantially more cash than its reported earnings alone indicate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion relative to net income stays above 150% for the next 2 reported periods.
CounterA very high free-cash-flow-to-income ratio can reflect working-capital timing or non-cash accounting effects rather than a structural cash-generation advantage; if these effects reverse, the quality picture would deteriorate sharply.
The two most recent quarters each missed consensus estimates by more than 19%, reversing an earlier beat, and management has not provided formal guidance — leaving forecasts poorly anchored and near-term execution credibility impaired.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers a positive EPS surprise exceeding +5% in the next reported quarter, beginning to repair the miss pattern.
CounterA single beat could reflect timing or one-time items rather than durable execution improvement, making it difficult to declare the miss risk resolved on the basis of one quarter alone.
With only 3.6% of potential upside to the analyst consensus target and downside nearly three times larger at 10%, the reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.4-to-1 at the current price does not adequately compensate for holding a position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus target is revised upward above $42 (more than 20% above the current price of $35.04), restoring a favorable risk/reward ratio and asymmetric setup.
CounterStrong price momentum — the stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising OBV and MACD at 9.1 — indicates the technical trend has not confirmed the thin fundamental upside, and the stock could continue higher on momentum alone.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -89% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 61% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.25
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 4.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.1, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.4, Peer rank at 4.5, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive reported fiscal periods.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive reported periods.
- P3Earnings Miss Execution Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds +5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution recovery and falsifying the miss-risk thesis.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward At Spot
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target is raised above $42 (more than 20% above the current price of $35.04), restoring a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5-to-1.