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Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $90.64. BUY gates pass at $105.30, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 7.5): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $90.64 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform with 130 million monthly active users as of December 31, 2025, offering 250+ language courses plus Math, Music, and Chess globally. Revenue comes from paid subscriptions (Super Duolingo, Duolingo Max; approximately 9% of MAUs) and... Read more

$105.30+18.9% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#9 of 96 Software - Application
Entry $90.64(support + ATR)Stop $85.25Target $107.80(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1Setup A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$104.97-0.3%17 analysts
$107.80our TP
$105.30price
$104.97mean
$81
$145

Wait for pullback to $90.64. BUY gates pass at $105.30, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 7.5): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $90.64 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.07, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.5): -1.5
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA25.5
Profit Mgn39.9%
ROE38.1%
Rev Growth35.0%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV120%elevated
Max Pain$145+37.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierApple App Store and the Google Play Store
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely primarily on a limited number of third-party platforms such as the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store to distribute our products and collect payments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.9
Bollinger
2.3
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.89Resistance $110.00

Price Targets

$85
$91
$108
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DUOL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $90.64. BUY gates pass at $105.30, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 7.5): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $90.64 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.07, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $107.80 (+2.4%), stop $85.25 (−23.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DUOL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $107.80 (+18.9% upside). Target $107.80 (+2.4%), stop $85.25 (−23.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $85.25.

What are the risks of investing in DUOL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.5): -1.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is DUOL overvalued or undervalued?

Duolingo, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DUOL?

31 analysts cover DUOL with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Duolingo, Inc. do?Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform with 130 million monthly active users as of December 31, 2025, offering...

Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform with 130 million monthly active users as of December 31, 2025, offering 250+ language courses plus Math, Music, and Chess globally. Revenue comes from paid subscriptions (Super Duolingo, Duolingo Max; approximately 9% of MAUs) and the Duolingo English Test; growth is primarily word-of-mouth. The platform's dataset of approximately 2 billion daily exercises powers continuous AI-driven improvement.

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