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Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $114.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform offering 250+ language courses plus Math, Music, and Chess courses to over 130 million monthly active users via a freemium model. Revenue comes from paid subscriptions (Super Duolingo, Duolingo Max; ~9% of MAU), advertising, and the... Read more

$114.00+2.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#20 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.92%
Stop $106.11Target $116.38(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$104.55-8.3%17 analysts
$116.38our TP
$114.00price
$104.55mean
$81
$145

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $114.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-17.5% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Duolingo, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA23.2
Profit Mgn38.4%
ROE37.0%
Rev Growth26.5%
Beta0.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV75%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierApple App Store and Google Play Store
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely primarily on a limited number of third-party platforms such as the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store to distribute our products and collect payments.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
2.3
Gap
4.0
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.30Resistance $118.75

Price Targets

$106
$116
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DUOL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $114.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-17.5% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $116.38 (+2.1%), stop $106.11 (−7.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DUOL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.38 (+2.0% upside). Target $116.38 (+2.1%), stop $106.11 (−7.4%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $106.11.

What are the risks of investing in DUOL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Apple App Store and Google Play Store; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is DUOL overvalued or undervalued?

Duolingo, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DUOL?

31 analysts cover DUOL with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Duolingo, Inc. do?Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform offering 250+ language courses plus Math, Music, and Chess courses to...

Duolingo is a mobile-first education platform offering 250+ language courses plus Math, Music, and Chess courses to over 130 million monthly active users via a freemium model. Revenue comes from paid subscriptions (Super Duolingo, Duolingo Max; ~9% of MAU), advertising, and the Duolingo English Test accepted by 6,100+ institutions globally.

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