Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 5.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.34
DINO · Why this verdict
Why HF Sinclair (DINO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HF Sinclair is attractively valued at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.9 times with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio near 1.0 and a four-quarter consecutive earnings beat streak featuring extraordinary positive surprises, but price momentum has broken down materially—on-balance volume is distributing, the momentum reading sits well below the minimum acceptable threshold at 3.5 out of 10—and a sharp recent gap-down may signal either a reversal or the beginning of a larger move lower.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise exceeding 400%, including a quarter where actual EPS of $0.69 came in against a consensus of -$0.05, indicating either exceptional operational execution or a high degree of guidance conservatism. Earnings | EPS continues to beat consensus by at least 20% per quarter for the next 2 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprises of this magnitude often reflect a period of unusually low guidance credibility or a temporary commodity-price tailwind; when the environment normalizes, beats of this scale become unsustainable and the streak can break sharply. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.9 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.01 suggest the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with the data also noting a 33% margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 12x as earnings growth is recognized by the market over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLow multiples in energy refining often reflect the cyclical and commodity-driven nature of the earnings stream; a refining margin compression could rapidly reduce earnings and make even a discounted multiple appear full on a normalized basis. | ||
Price momentum has deteriorated materially—on-balance volume is falling (distribution), and the momentum score sits well below the minimum threshold at 3.5 out of 10—indicating that selling pressure is outpacing buying interest despite the attractive valuation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns to accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock that is cheap and in a downtrend can reverse quickly once selling exhaustion occurs; the sharp gap-down noted in recent technicals may signal that the final wave of near-term selling has passed. | ||
A sharp gap lower of approximately 5.3% has pushed the stock toward technical support levels where price may stabilize, as extreme single-session moves can mark a capitulation that exhausts near-term selling pressure. Technical breakdown | Stock reclaims and closes above the pre-gap level for more than 5 consecutive trading days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGap-downs can be continuation patterns rather than reversals, particularly when momentum is already in a downtrend; the gap could be the beginning of a larger decline if the fundamental environment continues to weaken. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise exceeding 400%, including a quarter where actual EPS of $0.69 came in against a consensus of -$0.05, indicating either exceptional operational execution or a high degree of guidance conservatism.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat consensus by at least 20% per quarter for the next 2 reporting periods.
CounterAverage surprises of this magnitude often reflect a period of unusually low guidance credibility or a temporary commodity-price tailwind; when the environment normalizes, beats of this scale become unsustainable and the streak can break sharply.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.9 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.01 suggest the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with the data also noting a 33% margin of safety.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 12x as earnings growth is recognized by the market over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples in energy refining often reflect the cyclical and commodity-driven nature of the earnings stream; a refining margin compression could rapidly reduce earnings and make even a discounted multiple appear full on a normalized basis.
Price momentum has deteriorated materially—on-balance volume is falling (distribution), and the momentum score sits well below the minimum threshold at 3.5 out of 10—indicating that selling pressure is outpacing buying interest despite the attractive valuation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns to accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterA stock that is cheap and in a downtrend can reverse quickly once selling exhaustion occurs; the sharp gap-down noted in recent technicals may signal that the final wave of near-term selling has passed.
A sharp gap lower of approximately 5.3% has pushed the stock toward technical support levels where price may stabilize, as extreme single-session moves can mark a capitulation that exhausts near-term selling pressure.
↑ImprovingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock reclaims and closes above the pre-gap level for more than 5 consecutive trading days.
CounterGap-downs can be continuation patterns rather than reversals, particularly when momentum is already in a downtrend; the gap could be the beginning of a larger decline if the fundamental environment continues to weaken.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $181,967 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-15.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Catalyst at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Quality at 4.9, and Momentum at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extraordinary Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Compelling Valuation
Trip ifForward EPS estimates decline more than 25% from current levels for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Broken Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score recovers above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns to accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Gap Down Reversal Signal
Trip ifStock closes below $60.00 for 2 consecutive trading days within the next 4 weeks.