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Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.34: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment... Read more

$183.34-1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#15 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-1.55%
IncomeYield2.79%(5y avg 3.79%)Payout48.12%sustainable
Stop $170.76Target $180.03(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$186.63+1.8%19 analysts
$180.03our TP
$183.34price
$186.63mean
$138
$215

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.34: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Phillips 66

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$73.1B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta0.69
Dividend2.79%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV44%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Board increased from 14 to 16 directors; Kevin Meyers and Howard Ungerleider appointed as independent directors effective March 6, 2026. Both assigned to Audit & Finance and Public Policy and Sustainability Committees. Routine board expansion.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.2

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.3
Net Margin
1.5
Roa
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.4
Roe
4.8
Moat
4.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -28% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
0.9
52w Position
9.3
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $156.86Resistance $183.70

Price Targets

$171
$180
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.34: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $170.76. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PSX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.03 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $170.76. Stop-loss: $170.76.

What are the risks of investing in PSX?

Target reached (-7.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?

Phillips 66 trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PSX?

26 analysts cover PSX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $187.

What does Phillips 66 do?Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and...

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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