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DFINDonnelley Financial Solutions, Sell5.9·$48.69
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Donnelley Financial Solutions has cleared all substantive engine gates — posting four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise above 33%, converting free cash flow at 345% of reported net income, and offering 34 points of potential upside against a roughly 5-to-1 favorable risk/reward ratio — but the stock's market capitalization sits at the $1 billion investable-universe floor, which mechanically constrains new position sizing until the company grows into fuller coverage.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Outperformance→Stable
  • Exceptional Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Market Cap Investability Floor→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Donnelley Financial Solutions, (DFIN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.69: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) provides compliance and regulatory software and services -- including Venue, ActiveDisclosure, and Arc Suite -- supporting SEC filings, capital markets transactions, and investment company regulatory reporting. Software solutions grew to... Read more

$48.69+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#57 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.10%
Stop $45.61Target $54.40(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$64.00+31.4%3 analysts
$54.40our TP
$48.69price
$64.00mean
$70

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.69: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Donnelley Financial Solutions,

About Donnelley Financial Solutions,

Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) operates four reportable segments -- Capital Markets Software Solutions, Capital Markets Compliance & Communications Management, Investment Companies Software Solutions, and Investment Companies Compliance & Communications Management -- with software solutions representing approximately 44% of 2025 capital markets net sales, up from 40% in 2024, led by its Venue virtual data room and ActiveDisclosure platforms. Within investment companies, software solutions -- primarily the Arc Suite platform -- grew to approximately 53% of segment net sales in 2025 from 47% in 2024, continuing DFIN's multi-year shift away from print and distribution. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of net sales in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

DFIN earns revenue through software subscriptions (Venue, ActiveDisclosure, Arc Suite) alongside tech-enabled services and print/distribution offerings tied to SEC EDGAR filings, proxy solicitation, and virtual data rooms for capital markets and investment companies clients. Within capital markets tech-enabled and print revenue, approximately 59% was transactional (deal-driven) and 41% compliance-related in 2025, while investment companies tech-enabled and print revenue skewed 93% compliance and 7% transactional, reflecting the more cyclical, deal-flow-dependent nature of the Capital Markets segments versus the steadier regulatory-filing cadence of Investment Companies. The company sources paper and ink for its remaining print operations from a small set of select suppliers, a footprint it continues to shrink as clients migrate to its software platforms. DFIN invests substantially all of its capital expenditures budget in software development, most recently a rebuilt Venue platform and Arc Suite enhancements to support the SEC's Tailored Shareholder Reporting rules.

Show full overview

DFIN's Capital Markets segments carry cyclical exposure to deal volume rather than to any single customer or supplier: the 10-K discloses that U.S. capital markets transactions, especially IPOs and M&A, were disrupted by the fourth-quarter 2025 federal government shutdown, and that a significant portion of net sales depends on the global market for IPOs, secondary offerings, and similar transactions. Because Investment Companies' regulatory filing cadence is comparatively insulated from deal-market swings, DFIN's overall results hinge less on any named counterparty than on whether capital-markets activity -- and the government's capacity to keep the SEC's EDGAR filing system and reviews running -- stays open in a given quarter.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Donnelley Financial Solutions, 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202615d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.6
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta0.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.43bearish
IV66%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On May 14, 2026, EVP and President of Global Capital Markets Craig Clay, a named executive officer, announced he will transition out of his role, serving as an advisor through December 31, 2026 when his employment terminates; he will receive severance under the company's Executive Severance Plan. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
4.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
4.3
Value Rank
6.5
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.98Resistance $50.94

Price Targets

$46
$54
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts9
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$64

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DFIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $48.69: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $45.61. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.40 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $45.61. Stop-loss: $45.61.

What are the risks of investing in DFIN?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Is DFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Donnelley Financial Solutions, trades at a P/E of 33.6 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DFIN?

9 analysts cover DFIN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $64.

What does Donnelley Financial Solutions, do?Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) provides compliance and regulatory software and services -- including Venue,...

Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) provides compliance and regulatory software and services -- including Venue, ActiveDisclosure, and Arc Suite -- supporting SEC filings, capital markets transactions, and investment company regulatory reporting. Software solutions grew to approximately 44% of 2025 capital markets net sales and 53% of investment companies net sales, continuing the company's shift away from print and distribution, with no single customer representing 10% or more of net sales in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

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