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Chevron Corporation (CVX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Chevron Corporation is a fully integrated global energy company with upstream oil and gas operations in over 20 countries, downstream refining and marketing, and chemicals, producing 3.7 million BOE/day in 2025 (up 12% including the Hess acquisition). Revenue comes from crude... Read more

$196.17+8.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.00%
IncomeYield3.61%(5y avg 4.05%)Payout120.38%at-risk
Entry $180.16(support + ATR)Stop $172.56Target $194.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$214.87+9.5%23 analysts
$194.89our TP
$196.17price
$214.87mean
$170
$236

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $197.25 has reached target $194.89. No upside to wait for. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Chevron Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.4
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$392.8B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn5.9%
ROE6.6%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta0.50
Dividend3.61%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
52w Position
8.5
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $177.90Resistance $198.87

Price Targets

$173
$180
$195
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $197.25 has reached target $194.89. No upside to wait for. Target $194.89 (-0.7%), stop $172.56 (−13.7%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $194.89 (+8.2% upside). Target $194.89 (-0.7%), stop $172.56 (−13.7%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $172.56.

What are the risks of investing in CVX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is CVX overvalued or undervalued?

Chevron Corporation trades at a P/E of 34.4 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CVX?

31 analysts cover CVX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $215.

What does Chevron Corporation do?Chevron Corporation is a fully integrated global energy company with upstream oil and gas operations in over 20...

Chevron Corporation is a fully integrated global energy company with upstream oil and gas operations in over 20 countries, downstream refining and marketing, and chemicals, producing 3.7 million BOE/day in 2025 (up 12% including the Hess acquisition). Revenue comes from crude oil, natural gas, and refined product sales globally; 43% of proved reserves are in the U.S., 15% in Australia, and 11% in Kazakhstan. The 2025 acquisition of Hess Corporation added Guyana assets and significantly expanded reserves.

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