Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.80
- ▸Attractively valued
CVX · Why this verdict
Why Chevron (CVX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chevron shows 35% YoY growth, a wide moat and a 4-quarter beat streak at a reasonable valuation, but with the price only 3.1% below the analyst target against 5.4% downside, the reward-to-risk of 0.57 does not justify adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Chevron pays a 3.4% dividend, providing income while the price consolidates. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.2 out of 10, so a downturn in commodity prices could pressure payout coverage. | ||
Chevron beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, most recently $5.28 vs $4.87 (an 8.47% surprise). Catalyst breakdown | EPS continues to beat consensus over the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEnergy earnings depend on commodity prices, so a fall in oil and gas prices could turn beats into misses regardless of execution. | ||
Chevron shows strong growth of 35% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings keep growing at a double-digit rate over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth in an integrated oil company is largely price- and cycle-driven, so a 35% rate is unlikely to repeat if commodity prices normalize. | ||
Chevron has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, supporting durable returns through the cycle. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher and returns stay stable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterROE scores only 4.6 out of 10 and quality is 6.1 overall, so returns are mid-range rather than exceptional. | ||
The price of $212.61 is only 3.1% below the $219.11 analyst target, against 5.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.57. Upside pct | Either analyst targets rise or the price pulls back to widen the upside before a new position makes sense. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalysts tend to raise targets after beats, and an uptrend pullback with RSI 37 could set up a better entry without needing the target to move. | ||
Chevron pays a 3.4% dividend, providing income while the price consolidates.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised over the next 12 months.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.2 out of 10, so a downturn in commodity prices could pressure payout coverage.
Chevron beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, most recently $5.28 vs $4.87 (an 8.47% surprise).
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat consensus over the next 4 quarters.
CounterEnergy earnings depend on commodity prices, so a fall in oil and gas prices could turn beats into misses regardless of execution.
Chevron shows strong growth of 35% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth scoring 10 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings keep growing at a double-digit rate over 12 months.
CounterGrowth in an integrated oil company is largely price- and cycle-driven, so a 35% rate is unlikely to repeat if commodity prices normalize.
Chevron has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, supporting durable returns through the cycle.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher and returns stay stable.
CounterROE scores only 4.6 out of 10 and quality is 6.1 overall, so returns are mid-range rather than exceptional.
The price of $212.61 is only 3.1% below the $219.11 analyst target, against 5.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.57.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either analyst targets rise or the price pulls back to widen the upside before a new position makes sense.
CounterAnalysts tend to raise targets after beats, and an uptrend pullback with RSI 37 could set up a better entry without needing the target to move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $82,855,831 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 5.7 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.20
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Technical at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Insider at 5.3, and Momentum at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Yoy Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 35%.
- P3Wide Moat Strong Financials
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8.
- P4Thin Upside Poor Reward Risk
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 15% from the current 3.1%.
- P5Dividend Income
Trip ifAnnual dividend per share is cut by more than 10%.