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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.9% away).

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production... Read more

$21.67-0.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#7 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
Stop $20.28Target $21.52(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$20.61-4.9%14 analysts
$21.52our TP
$21.67price
$20.61mean
$13
$29

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.9% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 52%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.9% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$140.8B
EV/EBITDA3.0
Profit Mgn22.1%
ROE28.2%
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta-0.07
Dividend6.70%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.02Resistance $21.96

Price Targets

$20
$22
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.67 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.9% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $20.28. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.52 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $20.28. Stop-loss: $20.28.

What are the risks of investing in PBR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.9% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is PBR overvalued or undervalued?

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBR?

19 analysts cover PBR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob do?Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. It...

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. The Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. The company also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, it engages in the research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. The company was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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