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Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.89 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Constellium is a global manufacturer of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, and automotive end markets across 24 facilities in the U.S., Europe, and Canada. It earns revenue on a margin-over-metal-price model by converting aluminum into... Read more

$31.89+3.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#1 of 4 Aluminum
Stop $29.62Target $33.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$36.40+14.1%4 analysts
$33.02our TP
$31.89price
$36.40mean
$30
$40

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.89 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.7), Material insider selling (15 sells, 0.13% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE45.7%
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta1.44
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomercustomer concentration risk
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is exposed to customer concentration risk. A significant downturn in the business, credit or financial condition of our largest customers could expose us to the risk of default'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.45Resistance $33.69

Price Targets

$30
$33
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $31.89 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $29.62. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.02 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $29.62. Stop-loss: $29.62.

What are the risks of investing in CSTM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.7), Material insider selling (15 sells, 0.13% of cap).

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued?

Constellium SE trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSTM?

10 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Constellium SE do?Constellium is a global manufacturer of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging,...

Constellium is a global manufacturer of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, and automotive end markets across 24 facilities in the U.S., Europe, and Canada. It earns revenue on a margin-over-metal-price model by converting aluminum into high-value semi-fabricated products, with product qualification creating switching costs.

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