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Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Sell if holding. At $31.24, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%).

Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, automotive, and industrial markets, operating 24 facilities across North America and Europe. Revenue derives from converting aluminum into... Read more

$31.24+4.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 4 Aluminum
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.54%
Stop $29.05Target $32.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$37.34+19.5%5 analysts
$32.48our TP
$31.24price
$37.34mean
$40

Sell if holding. At $31.24, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Constellium SE

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE45.7%
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta1.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.10bearish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers56%
    10-K Item 1: 'our 10 largest customers representing approximately 56% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertop 10 metal suppliers49%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top 10 suppliers accounted for approximately 49% of our total metal purchases (in terms of volumes) for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.8
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.85Resistance $34.94

Price Targets

$29
$32
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $31.24, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $29.05. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.48 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $29.05. Stop-loss: $29.05.

What are the risks of investing in CSTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued?

Constellium SE trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSTM?

10 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Constellium SE do?Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving...

Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, automotive, and industrial markets, operating 24 facilities across North America and Europe. Revenue derives from converting aluminum into semi-fabricated products with a pass-through metal pricing model, with top-10 customers representing approximately 56% of 2025 revenue. Long qualification cycles and joint product development create high switching costs with key customers.

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