Skip to main content

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: largest customer (16.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%).

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products — flat-rolled, extruded, drawn, and cast — for aerospace/defense, packaging, automotive, and general engineering markets, primarily in North America. Revenue is earned from direct sales to manufacturers,... Read more

$163.00+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 4 Aluminum
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.76%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 3.69%)Payout33.59%sustainable
Stop $151.59Target $179.34(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$165.25+1.4%4 analysts
$179.34our TP
$163.00price
$165.25mean
$142
$183

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: largest customer (16.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: largest customer (16.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn4.1%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth42.4%
Beta1.59
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV50%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerlargest customer16%
    10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer accounted for 16% of Net sales'
  • HIGHCustomerfive largest customers56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our five largest customers in total accounted for approximately 56% of our 2025 net sales.'
  • HIGHSupplierAlcoa
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Alcoa for certain resources required to support daily operations at Warrick, including potable water.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $154.22Resistance $183.00

Price Targets

$152
$179
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KALU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: largest customer (16.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $179.34 (+10.0%), stop $151.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KALU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $179.34 (+10.0% upside). Target $179.34 (+10.0%), stop $151.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $151.59.

What are the risks of investing in KALU?

Concentration risk — Customer: largest customer (16.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KALU?

8 analysts cover KALU with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $165.

What does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation do?Kaiser Aluminum manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products — flat-rolled, extruded, drawn, and cast — for...

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products — flat-rolled, extruded, drawn, and cast — for aerospace/defense, packaging, automotive, and general engineering markets, primarily in North America. Revenue is earned from direct sales to manufacturers, tier-one suppliers, and metal service centers, with the largest customer representing 16% of net sales. Key production facilities include the Trentwood rolling mill for aerospace plate and the Warrick facility dedicated to packaging coil.

Related stocks: CSTM (Constellium SE) · AA (Alcoa Corporation) · CENX (Century Aluminum Company) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation)