Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the KALU stock price target?

Take-profit $177.84 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $156.99.

Q: What are the risks of investing in KALU?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 customers (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Alcoa; Target reached (-21.6% upside); Target reached (-21.6% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Q: Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about KALU?

7 analysts cover KALU with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $156.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Basic Materials · Aluminum

$168.81+5.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 4 Aluminum

Stop $156.99Target $177.84(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1

Analyst target$155.67-7.8%3 analysts

$177.84our TP

$168.81price

$155.67mean

$124

$183

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $168.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Recent Analyst detected in news

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 customers (56.0%)

Concentration risk — Supplier: Alcoa

Target reached (-21.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.8

P/E (Fwd)16.6

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA10.6

Profit Mgn4.1%

ROE18.8%

Rev Growth42.4%

Beta1.39

Dividend1.78%

Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral

IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomertop 5 customers56%
10-K Item 1A: 'Our five largest customers in total accounted for approximately 56% of our 2025 net sales'
HIGHSupplierAlcoa
10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Alcoa for certain resources required to support daily operations at Warrick, including potable water'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.115%1.06

Quality4.015%0.60

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum4.910%0.49

Sentiment6.210%0.62

Insider Activity3.010%0.30

Peer Rank5.010%0.50

Technical Setup5.05%0.25

Risk Profile5.75%0.29

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)5.95

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

74 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $125.43Resistance $181.47

Price Targets

$157

$178

A.Upside+5.3%

A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.6% upside)

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is KALU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $168.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $156.99. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KALU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $177.84 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $156.99. Stop-loss: $156.99.

What are the risks of investing in KALU?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 customers (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Alcoa; Target reached (-21.6% upside).

Is KALU overvalued or undervalued?

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KALU?

7 analysts cover KALU with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $156.

What does Kaiser Aluminum Corporation do?Kaiser Aluminum manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products — flat-rolled plate/sheet, extruded,...

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products — flat-rolled plate/sheet, extruded, drawn, and cast — for aerospace, packaging, automotive, and general engineering markets from US and Canadian facilities. Revenue comes from selling technically demanding aluminum solutions to blue-chip customers including aerospace manufacturers, Tier 1 automotive suppliers, and beverage/food packaging companies. The company focuses on select end markets with high barriers to entry where it can earn premium pricing.