Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54% of consolidated sales) (54.0%).
Century Aluminum is a global primary aluminum producer with active smelters in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland totaling ~770,000 tpy capacity, plus a 55% JV interest in Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica. Revenue is LME-linked commodity pricing; Glencore accounted for 54%... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54% of consolidated sales) (54.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=5.4x,ratio=0.32x. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Century Aluminum Company
Latest news
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Century Aluminum, Raises Price Target to $79 — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
- Century Aluminum Q1 Adj. EPS $1.63 Misses $1.80 Estimate, Sales $649.200M Beat $636.350M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- Century Aluminum Announces Restart Of Production In Second Potline At Its Norðurál Smelter In Iceland — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 positive
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Century Aluminum, Raises Price Target to $77 — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 positive
- 5 Precious Metal Stocks to Buy as Gold and Silver Rebound — benzinga Apr 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGlencore (54% of consolidated sales)54%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 54.0% of our consolidated net sales from Glencore and we currently have agreements in place to sell a substantial portion of our 2026 production to Glencore'
- HIGHCommodityprimary aluminum (single commodity)10-K Item 1A: 'Our operating results depend on the market for primary aluminum which can be volatile and subject to many factors beyond our control'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-03Item 4.02HIGHCentury Aluminum disclosed non-reliance on previously issued financial statements due to a change in accounting for Jamalco JV assets from proportionate consolidation to full consolidation (with noncontrolling interest). Restatement reflected in Q4 2025 earnings release; full 10-K to reflect corrected accounting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54% of consolidated sales) (54.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $52.87. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.00 (+23.8% upside). Prior stop was $52.87. Stop-loss: $52.87.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54% of consolidated sales) (54.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: primary aluminum (single commodity).
Century Aluminum Company trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CENX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $80.
What does Century Aluminum Company do?Century Aluminum is a global primary aluminum producer with active smelters in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland...
Century Aluminum is a global primary aluminum producer with active smelters in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland totaling ~770,000 tpy capacity, plus a 55% JV interest in Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica. Revenue is LME-linked commodity pricing; Glencore accounted for 54% of consolidated 2025 sales; Grundartangi smelter reduced ~two-thirds by electrical failure in Oct 2025.