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Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.29 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. The company owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 138,636 hectares located... Read more

$12.26+58.2% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#4 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.02%
IncomeYield0.49%Payout2.08%sustainable
Entry $13.29(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $11.52Target $18.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$21.80+77.8%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.29 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=7.3x,ratio=0.43x. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Orla Mining Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA5.1
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE42.0%
Rev Growth169.3%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=7.3x,ratio=0.43xA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.12Resistance $15.32

Price Targets

$12
$13
$19
A.Upside+51.1%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.3%
Max %2.6%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=7.3x,ratio=0.43x

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORLA stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $13.29 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Target $18.53 (+51.1%), stop $11.52 (−6.4%), Setup A.R:R 8.3:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.53 (+58.2% upside). Target $18.53 (+51.1%), stop $11.52 (−6.4%), Setup A.R:R 8.3:1. Stop-loss: $11.52.

What are the risks of investing in ORLA?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.43× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Is ORLA overvalued or undervalued?

Orla Mining Ltd. trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ORLA?

15 analysts cover ORLA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Orla Mining Ltd. do?Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead,...

Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores, develops, and exploits mineral properties. It explores gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. The company owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 138,636 hectares located in Zacatecas, Mexico; Cerro Quema project totaling an area of 15,000 hectares located in the Azuero Peninsula, Panama; and the South Railroad project consisting of an area of 21,000 hectares located in Elko, Nevada. It also holds interest in acquisition of the Musselwhite Gold Mine project located in Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as Red Mile Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Orla Mining Ltd. in June 2015. Orla Mining Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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