Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum; Thin upside margin: 3.0%.
Alcoa Corporation is active in all aspects of the upstream aluminum industry — bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting — across 25 operating locations in 8 countries. Revenue is primarily tied to LME aluminum prices and the Alumina Price Index; the... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum; Thin upside margin: 3.0%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommodityaluminum10-K Item 1: 'active in all aspects of the upstream aluminum industry with bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum; Thin upside margin: 3.0%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $64.27 (+2.9%), stop $59.91 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $64.27 (+3.0% upside). Target $64.27 (+2.9%), stop $59.91 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $59.91.
Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum; Thin upside margin: 3.0%; Negative momentum.
Alcoa Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover AA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $74.
What does Alcoa Corporation do?Alcoa Corporation is active in all aspects of the upstream aluminum industry — bauxite mining, alumina refining, and...
Alcoa Corporation is active in all aspects of the upstream aluminum industry — bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting — across 25 operating locations in 8 countries. Revenue is primarily tied to LME aluminum prices and the Alumina Price Index; the company sells commodity-grade and value-add aluminum products to external customers globally.