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CSLCarlisle Companies IncorporatedSell5.5·$387.31
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Carlisle Companies shows strong price momentum with a golden cross and volume accumulation, and posts a return on equity of 38% that ranks superior to peers — but the stock has essentially reached analyst targets with only 0.9% headroom to the take-profit level and a risk/reward of 0.14-to-1; declining revenue of negative 4% and a dividend payout ratio above 100% of earnings create pressure on the financial profile if growth does not recover.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Momentum Breakout↑Improving
  • Superior Return On Equity↓Deteriorating
  • Target Exhausted Thin Upside↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityHigh Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $387.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative building envelope products and solutions for more energy-efficient buildings. Through our building products businesses, Carlisle Construction Materials and... Read more

$387.31-9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 26 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.89%
IncomeYield1.29%(5y avg 1.02%)Payout25.50%sustainable
Stop $362.75Analyst target $349.63(reached)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst consensus$401.88+3.8%8 analysts with price targets
$387.31price
$401.88mean
$340
$480

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $387.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Carlisle Companies Incorporated

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Feb 2, 202790d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.7
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$15.0B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE42.3%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.78
Dividend1.29%
Analysts with ratings18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C49.59bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$260-32.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-09-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED | | | Date: | September 10, 2026 | By: | /s/ Kevin P. Zdimal | | | Kevin P. Zdimal | | | Vice President and [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
8.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
4.6
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
80 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $312.55Resistance $394.78

Price Targets

A.Upside-9.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-02 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $387.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $362.75. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the CSL stock price target?

Analyst target $349.63 reached (−9.7% from $387.31); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $362.75. Stop-loss: $362.75.

What are the risks of investing in CSL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5.

Is CSL overvalued or undervalued?

Carlisle Companies Incorporated trades at a P/E of 21.7 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSL?

18 analysts rate CSL, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $402.

What does Carlisle Companies Incorporated do?Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative...

Carlisle Companies Incorporated ("Carlisle," the "Company," "we," "us" or "our") is a leading supplier of innovative building envelope products and solutions for more energy-efficient buildings. Through our building products businesses, Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies, and family of leading brands, Carlisle delivers innovative, labor reducing and environmentally responsible products and solutions to customers through the Carlisle Experience.

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