Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.17
CSL · Why this verdict
Why Carlisle Companies (CSL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages with a rising on-balance volume trend, and momentum scores 7.5 — a technically constructive setup that reflects genuine buying demand. Momentum | On-balance volume continues rising and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming that the breakout structure is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average slope is currently flat, meaning the long-term trend has not yet confirmed the golden cross signal — momentum could stall at current levels if fundamental catalysts do not materialize. | ||
Return on equity of 38% ranks best-in-class versus peers in the building products sector, signaling that the business converts shareholder capital into earnings at an above-average rate. Quality | Return on equity stays above 25% for 4 consecutive reported quarters, sustaining the peer quality premium. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, the high return on equity may reflect temporary pricing power or cost efficiency gains rather than a durable structural advantage — and the return could compress if the construction cycle softens. | ||
With only 0.9% headroom to the analyst consensus take-profit level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.14-to-1, the current price offers almost no reward relative to the downside risk — the setup favors patience at current levels. Price targets | Price pulls back to below $300, restoring more than 18% upside to the $356.82 take-profit target and improving the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets tend to be revised upward over time as earnings grow; a continued beat streak could prompt upgrades that extend the target without requiring a price decline. | ||
Revenue declined 4% year over year in the most recent period, and the growth score of 1.4 out of 10 signals that top-line contraction is eroding the fundamental case for multiple expansion at current valuations. Growth | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming recovery in end-market demand. | →Stable |
| CounterA one-period revenue decline in building products can reflect project timing or weather-related lumpiness rather than a structural demand shift, and could normalize quickly as backlogs convert. | ||
The dividend payout ratio stands at 124% of earnings, meaning the dividend currently exceeds reported income — a configuration that may be unsustainable if earnings do not grow to cover the distribution. Catalyst | Dividend payout ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that earnings have recovered to cover the distribution. | →Stable |
| CounterCompanies with strong free cash flow conversion can sustain payout ratios above reported earnings for extended periods; if cash generation supports the dividend, a payout ratio above 100% of GAAP earnings may not signal imminent distress. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages with a rising on-balance volume trend, and momentum scores 7.5 — a technically constructive setup that reflects genuine buying demand.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues rising and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming that the breakout structure is sustained.
CounterThe 200-day moving average slope is currently flat, meaning the long-term trend has not yet confirmed the golden cross signal — momentum could stall at current levels if fundamental catalysts do not materialize.
Return on equity of 38% ranks best-in-class versus peers in the building products sector, signaling that the business converts shareholder capital into earnings at an above-average rate.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% for 4 consecutive reported quarters, sustaining the peer quality premium.
CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, the high return on equity may reflect temporary pricing power or cost efficiency gains rather than a durable structural advantage — and the return could compress if the construction cycle softens.
With only 0.9% headroom to the analyst consensus take-profit level and a risk/reward ratio of 0.14-to-1, the current price offers almost no reward relative to the downside risk — the setup favors patience at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to below $300, restoring more than 18% upside to the $356.82 take-profit target and improving the risk/reward to at least 1.5-to-1.
CounterAnalyst targets tend to be revised upward over time as earnings grow; a continued beat streak could prompt upgrades that extend the target without requiring a price decline.
Revenue declined 4% year over year in the most recent period, and the growth score of 1.4 out of 10 signals that top-line contraction is eroding the fundamental case for multiple expansion at current valuations.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming recovery in end-market demand.
CounterA one-period revenue decline in building products can reflect project timing or weather-related lumpiness rather than a structural demand shift, and could normalize quickly as backlogs convert.
The dividend payout ratio stands at 124% of earnings, meaning the dividend currently exceeds reported income — a configuration that may be unsustainable if earnings do not grow to cover the distribution.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- Dividend payout ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that earnings have recovered to cover the distribution.
CounterCompanies with strong free cash flow conversion can sustain payout ratios above reported earnings for extended periods; if cash generation supports the dividend, a payout ratio above 100% of GAAP earnings may not signal imminent distress.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carlisle Companies shows strong price momentum with a golden cross and volume accumulation, and posts a return on equity of 38% that ranks superior to peers — but the stock has essentially reached analyst targets with only 0.9% headroom to the take-profit level and a risk/reward of 0.14-to-1; declining revenue of negative 4% and a dividend payout ratio above 100% of earnings create pressure on the financial profile if growth does not recover.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.5 |
| EPS growth | 1.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 3.5 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 120.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.25
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.2, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Peer rank at 4.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Momentum Breakout
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average and holds for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P2Superior Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Target Exhausted Thin Upside
Trip ifPrice pulls back below $300, restoring more than 18% upside to the $356.82 take-profit target.
- P4Revenue Contraction Risk
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Elevated Dividend Payout
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 100% of earnings for 2 consecutive quarters.