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Griffon Corporation (GFF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $90.52, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 14.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 9.8%.

Griffon Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides home and building, and consumer and professional products in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally. The Home and Building Products segment manufactures and markets residential and sectional... Read more

$90.52+9.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
Stop $84.19Target $99.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$114.14+26.1%7 analysts
$99.30our TP
$90.52price
$114.14mean
$117

Sell if holding. At $90.52, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 14.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 9.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 14.2): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)87.8
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE26.5%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
4.4

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $70.22Resistance $95.20

Price Targets

$84
$99
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $90.52, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 14.2): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 9.8%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $84.19. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the GFF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.30 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $84.19. Stop-loss: $84.19.

What are the risks of investing in GFF?

Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 14.2): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is GFF overvalued or undervalued?

Griffon Corporation trades at a P/E of 87.8 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFF?

11 analysts cover GFF with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Griffon Corporation do?Griffon Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides home and building, and consumer and professional products in...

Griffon Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides home and building, and consumer and professional products in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally. The Home and Building Products segment manufactures and markets residential and sectional commercial garage doors, rolling steel service doors, fire doors, shutters, steel security grilles, and room dividers. This segment also sells garage door openers. Its Consumer and Professional Products segment manufactures and markets long-handled engineered tools, including shovels, spades, scoops, rakes, hoes, cultivators, weeders, post hole diggers, scrapers, edgers, and forks; wheelbarrows and lawn carts; snow tools comprising pushers, roof rakes, sled sleigh shovels, and ice scrapers; and pruning products, such as pruners, loppers, shears, and other tools. This segment also offers striking tools, including axes, picks, mattocks, mauls, wood splitters, sledgehammers, pry bars, and repair handles; hand tools comprising hammers, screwdrivers, pliers, adjustable wrenches, handsaws, tape measures, levels, clamps, trowels, and other hand tools; indoor and outdoor planters and lawn accessories; and garden hoses and hose reels. In addition, this segment provides home organization products, including wire and wood shelving, containers, storage cabinets, and other closet and home organization accessories; residential, industrial, and commercial fans; and cleaning products, such as brooms, brushes, squeegees, and other cleaning products. It serves independent professional installing dealers and home center retail chains; and industrial distributors, homebuilders, and e-commerce platforms, as well as mass market, specialty, and hardware retailers. The company was formerly known as Instrument Systems Corporation and changed its name to Griffon Corporation in 1995. Griffon Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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