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Griffon Corporation (GFF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.00: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through Home Depot and Menards) and Defense Electronics (surveillance, communications, and detection products for U.S. military via Telephonics). It earns revenue through... Read more

$81.00+24.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.51%
IncomeYield1.06%(5y avg 1.07%)Payout78.43%
Stop $79.22Target $102.91(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$118.29+46.0%7 analysts
$102.91our TP
$81.00price
$118.29mean
$135

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.00: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Griffon Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)81.2
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn0.3%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.42
Dividend1.06%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.8
Value Rank
3.9
Quality Rank
4.1
GatesMomentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $81.67Resistance $95.20

Price Targets

$79
$103
A.Upside+27.0%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts11
Consensus4.4/5
Avg Target$118

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $81.00: Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.22. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the GFF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.91 (+24.2% upside). Prior stop was $79.22. Stop-loss: $79.22.

What are the risks of investing in GFF?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 15.6): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is GFF overvalued or undervalued?

Griffon Corporation trades at a P/E of 81.2 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GFF?

11 analysts cover GFF with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $118.

What does Griffon Corporation do?Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through...

Griffon Corporation operates two segments: Home and Building Products (Clopay garage doors sold exclusively through Home Depot and Menards) and Defense Electronics (surveillance, communications, and detection products for U.S. military via Telephonics). It earns revenue through exclusive retail partnerships and long-term U.S. government contracts.

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