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The Campbell's Company (CPB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. At $20.26, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (21.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (47.0%).

Campbell's Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverages across Meals & Beverages (Campbell's soups, Rao's, Swanson, Pacific Foods, Prego, V8) and Snacks (Pepperidge Farm, Goldfish, Snyder's of Hanover, Cape Cod) segments, primarily in the US. Walmart accounts for... Read more

$20.26+4.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#26 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield14.31%
IncomeYield7.73%(5y avg 3.71%)Payout84.78%at-risk
Stop $19.23Target $21.02(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$23.35+15.3%17 analysts
$21.02our TP
$20.26price
$23.35mean
$56

Sell if holding. At $20.26, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (21.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (47.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The Campbell's Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (21.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (47.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.0%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA7.4
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.9%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta-0.01
Dividend7.73%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$11-45.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWal-Mart Stores, Inc.21%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and its affiliates, accounted for approximately 21% of our consolidated net sales in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop-5 customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, our five largest customers accounted for approximately 47% of our consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHSupplierRao's single-facility Italian contract manufacturer
    10-K Item 1A: 'the substantial majority of our Rao’s tomato-based sauce products are produced by a third-party contract manufacturer at a single facility in Italy'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
5.6
Value Rank
5.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.82Resistance $21.47

Price Targets

$19
$21
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-08 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $20.26, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (21.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (47.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $19.23. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the CPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.02 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $19.23. Stop-loss: $19.23.

What are the risks of investing in CPB?

Concentration risk — Customer: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (21.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (47.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.0%.

Is CPB overvalued or undervalued?

The Campbell's Company trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CPB?

28 analysts cover CPB with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $23.

What does The Campbell's Company do?Campbell's Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverages across Meals & Beverages (Campbell's soups,...

Campbell's Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverages across Meals & Beverages (Campbell's soups, Rao's, Swanson, Pacific Foods, Prego, V8) and Snacks (Pepperidge Farm, Goldfish, Snyder's of Hanover, Cape Cod) segments, primarily in the US. Walmart accounts for ~21% of consolidated net sales; top-5 customers = 47% of net sales; Rao's tomato-based sauces are largely manufactured at a single Italian contract facility.

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