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Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%), energy/sports/fitness (12.2%), and personal care products in 95 markets through approximately 6.4 million independent Members. Revenue comes from product sales... Read more

$12.16+25.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield26.74%
Stop $11.74Target $15.30(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$18.00+48.0%4 analysts
$15.30our TP
$12.16price
$18.00mean
$9
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Herbalife Ltd.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.01: Herbalife subsidiaries issued $800M of 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due May 1, 2033 on April 29, 2026, in a Rule 144A/Reg S private offering; semi-annual interest; first-lien secured; guaranteed by Company and subsidiaries.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)4.0
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.99
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductFormula 1 Healthy Meal25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Formula 1 Nutritional Shake Mix, our best-selling product line, approximated 25% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Herbalife subsidiaries issued $800M of 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due May 1, 2033 on April 29, 2026, in a Rule 144A/Reg S private offering; semi-annual interest; first-lien secured; guaranteed by Company and subsidiaries.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 2.04LOW
    Issuance of $800M 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on April 29, 2026 constitutes a triggering event creating a direct financial obligation under the new Indenture. Voluntary issuance without default.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
21 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.10Resistance $16.98

Price Targets

$12
$15
A.Upside+25.8%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.30 (+25.8%), stop $11.74 (−3.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.30 (+25.8% upside). Target $15.30 (+25.8%), stop $11.74 (−3.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $11.74.

What are the risks of investing in HLF?

Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is HLF overvalued or undervalued?

Herbalife Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 4.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HLF?

9 analysts cover HLF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Herbalife Ltd. do?Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%),...

Herbalife is a global direct-selling nutrition company selling weight management (54.5%), targeted nutrition (30.0%), energy/sports/fitness (12.2%), and personal care products in 95 markets through approximately 6.4 million independent Members. Revenue comes from product sales via the Member network; Formula 1 Healthy Meal approximates 25% of net sales. Products are manufactured at owned facilities (approximately 46% of inner nutrition) plus third-party contract manufacturers globally.

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