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HLFHerbalife Ltd.Buy Wait6.1·$11.82-1.25%
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Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Wait for pullback to $10.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.82. Engine's entry $10.78 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Weight Management (54.5%); Concentration risk — Customer: independent Members.

Herbalife sells nutrition and wellness products — weight management (54.5% of 2025 net sales), targeted nutrition, sports, and outer nutrition — through a direct-selling network of approximately 6.4 million Members across 95 markets. Revenue is earned when Members purchase at... Read more

$11.82+36.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield28.12%
Entry $10.78(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $9.63Target $15.58(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1Setup A.R:R 6.7:1
Analyst target$18.33+55.1%3 analysts
$15.58our TP
$11.82price
$18.33mean
$9
$25

Wait for pullback to $10.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.82. Engine's entry $10.78 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Weight Management (54.5%); Concentration risk — Customer: independent Members. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Weight Management (54.5%)
Concentration risk — Customer: independent Members

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.3
P/E (Fwd)3.8
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA4.7
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.15bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$18+48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductWeight Management55%
    10-K Item 1: 'Weight Management ... 54.5%'
  • MEDIUMProductFormula 1 Healthy Meal25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Formula 1 Healthy Meal, which is our best-selling product line, approximated 25% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • HIGHCustomerindependent Members
    10-K Item 1A: 'We distribute our products exclusively to and through our independent Members, and we depend on them directly for substantially all of our sales.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 1.01MEDIUM
    On April 29, 2026, HLF Financing SaRL and Herbalife International Inc. issued $800 million of 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due May 1, 2033 to qualified institutional buyers. Notes secured on senior basis; governed by indenture with Citibank N.A. as trustee and collateral agent.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.18Resistance $12.94

Price Targets

$10
$11
$16
A.Upside+31.8%
A.R:R3.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLF stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $10.78. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $11.82. Engine's entry $10.78 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Weight Management (54.5%); Concentration risk — Customer: independent Members. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $15.58 (+31.8%), stop $9.63 (−22.7%), Setup A.R:R 6.7:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.58 (+36.0% upside). Target $15.58 (+31.8%), stop $9.63 (−22.7%), Setup A.R:R 6.7:1. Stop-loss: $9.63.

What are the risks of investing in HLF?

Concentration risk — Product: Weight Management (54.5%); Concentration risk — Customer: independent Members.

Is HLF overvalued or undervalued?

Herbalife Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.3 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HLF?

8 analysts cover HLF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Herbalife Ltd. do?Herbalife sells nutrition and wellness products — weight management (54.5% of 2025 net sales), targeted nutrition,...

Herbalife sells nutrition and wellness products — weight management (54.5% of 2025 net sales), targeted nutrition, sports, and outer nutrition — through a direct-selling network of approximately 6.4 million Members across 95 markets. Revenue is earned when Members purchase at wholesale for resale; the Formula 1 Healthy Meal line alone approximated 25% of net sales. Three company-owned HIM manufacturing facilities produce approximately 46% of inner nutrition products sold worldwide.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.) · BRBR (BellRing Brands, Inc.)
Home Stocks HLF

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