Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
CPAY · Why this verdict
Why Corpay (CPAY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 25% year-over-year with a PEG of 0.85 — indicating that the current price does not fully reflect the growth rate, a rare pairing for a business with demonstrated wide competitive advantages. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming the current rate is not decelerating toward a level where the valuation argument breaks down. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is in distribution and price momentum has slipped below the threshold needed to confirm a breakout — signals the market may already be anticipating a growth slowdown that the reported revenue figures have not yet reflected. | ||
Despite strong fundamental quality and growth, price momentum has slipped below the required threshold — on-balance volume is in distribution and the technical setup remains range-bound near resistance — indicating the market has not yet confirmed the fundamental thesis with a price breakout. Momentum breakdown | A momentum recovery would be visible as price breaks above the $360 resistance level with expanding volume and rising OBV, providing the technical confirmation that has been absent. | →Stable |
| CounterRange-bound consolidation in a high-quality, high-growth business often marks a buying opportunity before the next leg higher; a temporary momentum lapse may simply reflect normal digestion of prior gains rather than structural deterioration. | ||
The business converts 178% of net income into free cash flow, earns a 32% return on equity, scores a Rule of 40 of 69, and carries a wide economic moat — a quality combination that reflects durable compounding potential across market cycles. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and return on equity holds above 25% over the next four quarters, confirming that the high-quality profile is structural rather than a recent-quarter anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterA return on equity of 32% at 2.7x debt-to-equity may be materially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base; the true return on invested capital could be meaningfully lower, and the leverage leaves less cushion if the cash-generative profile softens. | ||
Three consecutive earnings beats — most recently a 6% upside surprise — demonstrate consistent ability to clear analyst estimates, a pattern that in high-quality businesses tends to drive gradual multiple expansion over time. Bull case | The beat streak continues with at least 2 positive surprises above 0% in the next 3 reported quarters, sustaining the execution-quality signal that supports the quality premium. | →Stable |
| CounterThe magnitude of the beats has been modest, averaging roughly 2.2% above consensus, and the fourth quarter was effectively in-line; a single miss would break a streak the market is likely pricing as a structural feature. | ||
Revenue is growing at 25% year-over-year with a PEG of 0.85 — indicating that the current price does not fully reflect the growth rate, a rare pairing for a business with demonstrated wide competitive advantages.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming the current rate is not decelerating toward a level where the valuation argument breaks down.
CounterOn-balance volume is in distribution and price momentum has slipped below the threshold needed to confirm a breakout — signals the market may already be anticipating a growth slowdown that the reported revenue figures have not yet reflected.
Despite strong fundamental quality and growth, price momentum has slipped below the required threshold — on-balance volume is in distribution and the technical setup remains range-bound near resistance — indicating the market has not yet confirmed the fundamental thesis with a price breakout.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A momentum recovery would be visible as price breaks above the $360 resistance level with expanding volume and rising OBV, providing the technical confirmation that has been absent.
CounterRange-bound consolidation in a high-quality, high-growth business often marks a buying opportunity before the next leg higher; a temporary momentum lapse may simply reflect normal digestion of prior gains rather than structural deterioration.
The business converts 178% of net income into free cash flow, earns a 32% return on equity, scores a Rule of 40 of 69, and carries a wide economic moat — a quality combination that reflects durable compounding potential across market cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and return on equity holds above 25% over the next four quarters, confirming that the high-quality profile is structural rather than a recent-quarter anomaly.
CounterA return on equity of 32% at 2.7x debt-to-equity may be materially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base; the true return on invested capital could be meaningfully lower, and the leverage leaves less cushion if the cash-generative profile softens.
Three consecutive earnings beats — most recently a 6% upside surprise — demonstrate consistent ability to clear analyst estimates, a pattern that in high-quality businesses tends to drive gradual multiple expansion over time.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues with at least 2 positive surprises above 0% in the next 3 reported quarters, sustaining the execution-quality signal that supports the quality premium.
CounterThe magnitude of the beats has been modest, averaging roughly 2.2% above consensus, and the fourth quarter was effectively in-line; a single miss would break a streak the market is likely pricing as a structural feature.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Corpay's 25% revenue growth, 178% free-cash-flow conversion, wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 69 place it among the highest-quality businesses in the software infrastructure peer set — but the stock is range-bound near resistance with deteriorating price momentum and a put/call ratio of 1.82, suggesting the market is waiting for a technical breakout to confirm the fundamental thesis before extending.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 178% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $32,907,442 (0.143% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.67
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-2.5% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-2.5%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 9.4 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.28 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Quality at 8.3, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Cash Conversion Wide Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the elite cash-conversion profile is breaking down.
- P225 Pct Growth At Peg Below 1
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the PEG-below-1 valuation argument.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Execution Quality
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the established beat streak.
- P4Momentum Gap Delays Breakout Confirmation
Trip ifPrice breaks above $360 with rising OBV for 3 consecutive weeks, falsifying the thesis that a technical breakout has not yet been confirmed.