Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸Attractively valued
CHRD · Why this verdict
Why Chord Energy (CHRD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chord Energy screens as deeply discounted — forward P/E of 8.1 times with a near-zero PEG ratio and 38% year-over-year revenue growth — but business quality sitting just below the minimum acceptable floor alongside heavy crude-oil and Williston Basin concentration means the attractive entry point carries significant commodity and quality risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posted 38% year-over-year revenue growth — positioning it as a growth leader in its peer group — reflecting strong commodity pricing and production volumes from its Williston Basin operations. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the peer-leadership position. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 38% largely tracks crude oil prices rather than operational improvement; if oil prices decline materially, reported revenue growth will decelerate sharply with no geographic or commodity diversification to cushion the fall. | ||
Crude oil represents 56% of total revenues and all production originates from the Williston Basin — a dual concentration that makes results highly sensitive to a single commodity's price and to basin-specific operational or regulatory risks. Bear case | This pillar is falsified if crude oil's share of total revenues declines below 45% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful diversification. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeep basin expertise can translate into cost advantages and superior well economics; a focused Williston producer may capture disproportionate upside in a commodity upcycle relative to more diversified peers. | ||
At a forward P/E of 8.1 times and a near-zero PEG ratio, the stock screens as among the most attractively valued in its industry, with analyst consensus pointing to roughly 22% upside to the take-profit level. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E multiple remains below 12 times as earnings estimates hold or rise over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation case. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple in an oil-levered business can reflect permanently impaired earnings power if commodity prices fall; the multiple may stay compressed rather than re-rating if the market prices in a sustained downcycle. | ||
Business quality sits just below the minimum acceptable level — driven by below-average returns on assets, thin operating margins, high leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8, and flagged free cash flow concerns — raising the risk that cheap multiples reflect structural rather than cyclical weakness. Warnings | This pillar is falsified if the quality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 and a reported free cash flow yield of 6.3% indicate near-term financial health, suggesting the quality shortfall may be a measurement-period artifact rather than a structural problem. | ||
The company posted 38% year-over-year revenue growth — positioning it as a growth leader in its peer group — reflecting strong commodity pricing and production volumes from its Williston Basin operations.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the peer-leadership position.
CounterGrowth of 38% largely tracks crude oil prices rather than operational improvement; if oil prices decline materially, reported revenue growth will decelerate sharply with no geographic or commodity diversification to cushion the fall.
Crude oil represents 56% of total revenues and all production originates from the Williston Basin — a dual concentration that makes results highly sensitive to a single commodity's price and to basin-specific operational or regulatory risks.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if crude oil's share of total revenues declines below 45% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful diversification.
CounterDeep basin expertise can translate into cost advantages and superior well economics; a focused Williston producer may capture disproportionate upside in a commodity upcycle relative to more diversified peers.
At a forward P/E of 8.1 times and a near-zero PEG ratio, the stock screens as among the most attractively valued in its industry, with analyst consensus pointing to roughly 22% upside to the take-profit level.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E multiple remains below 12 times as earnings estimates hold or rise over the next four quarters, preserving the valuation case.
CounterA low multiple in an oil-levered business can reflect permanently impaired earnings power if commodity prices fall; the multiple may stay compressed rather than re-rating if the market prices in a sustained downcycle.
Business quality sits just below the minimum acceptable level — driven by below-average returns on assets, thin operating margins, high leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8, and flagged free cash flow concerns — raising the risk that cheap multiples reflect structural rather than cyclical weakness.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if the quality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterA Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 and a reported free cash flow yield of 6.3% indicate near-term financial health, suggesting the quality shortfall may be a measurement-period artifact rather than a structural problem.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 84% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.7 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,404,200 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.75
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.12
Upside
+9.2%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Technical at 4.9, and Catalyst at 6.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Entry Point
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15 times for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Geographic Commodity Concentration
Trip ifCrude oil's share of total revenues falls below 45% for 2 consecutive quarters.