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CHKPCheck Point Software TechnologiSell5.5·$126.38-2.24%
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Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $126.38, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions.... Read more

$126.38+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#37 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.43%
Stop $117.54Target $132.78(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$144.32+14.2%31 analysts
$132.78our TP
$126.38price
$144.32mean
$201

Sell if holding. At $126.38, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.1%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$13.4B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn38.4%
ROE38.0%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$195+54.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $113.47Resistance $141.31

Price Targets

$118
$133
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHKP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $126.38, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $117.54. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHKP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.78 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $117.54. Stop-loss: $117.54.

What are the risks of investing in CHKP?

Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued?

Check Point Software Technologi trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHKP?

45 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Check Point Software Technologi do?Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security...

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions. The company offers Mesh Network Security, which comprises Firewall, Maestro Hyperscale Firewall, Firewall Software R82.10, Spark Firewall, and AI Powered Security Management for hybrid cloud, internet and perimeter gateways, and branch locations. It also provides Workspace Security Platform, including email, endpoint, mobile, browser, and XDR security solutions across devices, browsers, SaaS apps, and remote access. In addition, the company offers Threat Exposure Management platforms comprising threat intelligence, vulnerability detection and prioritization, and safe remediation. Further, it offers AI Security platforms comprising workforce and agent security, and red teaming solutions. Additionally, the company offers cyber security services, including managed detection and response, incident response, security consulting and managed, security consulting, professional, and training services. The company also provides technical customer support programs and plans; professional services in implementing, upgrading, and optimizing its products comprising design planning and security implementation; and certification and educational training services on its products. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

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