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CHKPCheck Point Software TechnologiHold5.5·$128.75-1.00%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Check Point Software combines four consecutive quarters of beating analyst estimates — averaging 22% upside to consensus — with premier financial quality in 38% operating margins and a perfect Piotroski F-score, but a confirmed death-cross downtrend and failed momentum gate mean the risk/reward favors patience until price conditions improve.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation CushionStable
  • High Quality FranchiseStable
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions.... Read more

$128.75+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#49 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.40%
Stop $119.74Target $132.78(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$144.32+12.1%31 analysts
$132.78our TP
$128.75price
$144.32mean
$120
$201

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$13.5B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn38.4%
ROE38.0%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.84bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $117.52Resistance $141.31

Price Targets

$120
$133
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHKP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $132.78 (+3.1%), stop $119.74 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHKP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.78 (+3.1% upside). Target $132.78 (+3.1%), stop $119.74 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $119.74.

What are the risks of investing in CHKP?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued?

Check Point Software Technologi trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CHKP?

45 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Check Point Software Technologi do?Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security...

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions. The company offers Mesh Network Security, which comprises Firewall, Maestro Hyperscale Firewall, Firewall Software R82.10, Spark Firewall, and AI Powered Security Management for hybrid cloud, internet and perimeter gateways, and branch locations. It also provides Workspace Security Platform, including email, endpoint, mobile, browser, and XDR security solutions across devices, browsers, SaaS apps, and remote access. In addition, the company offers Threat Exposure Management platforms comprising threat intelligence, vulnerability detection and prioritization, and safe remediation. Further, it offers AI Security platforms comprising workforce and agent security, and red teaming solutions. Additionally, the company offers cyber security services, including managed detection and response, incident response, security consulting and managed, security consulting, professional, and training services. The company also provides technical customer support programs and plans; professional services in implementing, upgrading, and optimizing its products comprising design planning and security implementation; and certification and educational training services on its products. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

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