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CHKPCheck Point Software TechnologiBuy Wait5.6·$159.84
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Check Point is a high-quality, highly profitable cybersecurity company with a four-quarter beat streak, but growth is only 2.8%, price is 15.3% above the analyst target and RSI is overbought at 86.

Thesis pillars

  • Weak Growth Profile↓Deteriorating
  • High Return High Margin→Stable
  • Perfect Beat Streak↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)QualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-02). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $154.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $154.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions.... Read more

$159.84-15.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#54 of 99 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.29%
Entry $154.54(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $144.54Analyst target $135.35(reached)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst consensus$147.12-8.0%31 analysts
$159.84price
$147.12mean
$105
$201

Wait for pullback to $154.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $154.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-15.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$16.3B
EV/EBITDA19.1
Profit Mgn37.9%
ROE37.6%
Rev Growth1.3%
Beta0.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$85-46.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.3
Revenue Growth
2.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
5.2
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
89 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $126.01Resistance $162.44

Price Targets

A.Upside-15.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHKP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $154.54. Price sits above the model's entry target of $154.54; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-15.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Analyst target $135.35 reached (−15.3%), stop $144.54 (−10.6%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHKP stock price target?

Analyst target $135.35 reached (−15.3% from $159.84); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $135.35 reached (−15.3%), stop $144.54 (−10.6%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $144.54.

What are the risks of investing in CHKP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued?

Check Point Software Technologi trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CHKP?

45 analysts cover CHKP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Check Point Software Technologi do?Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security...

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets, and supports a range of products and services for IT security worldwide. It provides a multilevel security architecture that defends enterprises' cloud, network, mobile devices, endpoints information, and IOT solutions. The company offers Mesh Network Security, which comprises Firewall, Maestro Hyperscale Firewall, Firewall Software R82.10, Spark Firewall, and AI Powered Security Management for hybrid cloud, internet and perimeter gateways, and branch locations. It also provides Workspace Security Platform, including email, endpoint, mobile, browser, and XDR security solutions across devices, browsers, SaaS apps, and remote access. In addition, the company offers Threat Exposure Management platforms comprising threat intelligence, vulnerability detection and prioritization, and safe remediation. Further, it offers AI Security platforms comprising workforce and agent security, and red teaming solutions. Additionally, the company offers cyber security services, including managed detection and response, incident response, security consulting and managed, security consulting, professional, and training services. The company also provides technical customer support programs and plans; professional services in implementing, upgrading, and optimizing its products comprising design planning and security implementation; and certification and educational training services on its products. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

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