Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.25
CHKP · Why this verdict
Why Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 2.8/10 and quarterly revenue of $674M versus $665M a year earlier. Bear case | Revenue growth rises above 6% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMature security vendors can lift earnings through buybacks and margin discipline even with flat revenue. | ||
Check Point earns an excellent 38% ROE with 38% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 67% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit. | ||
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with a 23.0% average surprise. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings in 9 days and the price already well above the analyst target, expectations are elevated and a smaller beat could disappoint. | ||
At $159.03 the stock is 15.3% above the $134.75 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.1x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results beat estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum scores 8.3/10 with rising volume, so the market may be pricing results ahead of analyst targets. | ||
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 2.8/10 and quarterly revenue of $674M versus $665M a year earlier.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rises above 6% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterMature security vendors can lift earnings through buybacks and margin discipline even with flat revenue.
Check Point earns an excellent 38% ROE with 38% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 67% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit.
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with a 23.0% average surprise.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters.
CounterWith earnings in 9 days and the price already well above the analyst target, expectations are elevated and a smaller beat could disappoint.
At $159.03 the stock is 15.3% above the $134.75 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.1x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results beat estimates.
CounterMomentum scores 8.3/10 with rising volume, so the market may be pricing results ahead of analyst targets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Rule of 40: 25 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $478,005 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-5.0%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.4, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Momentum at 3.5, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Return High Margin
Trip ifROE falls below 25% from the current 38%.
- P2Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next quarterly report.
- P3Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 8% YoY from the current 2.8% score level.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $165, more than 3% above the current price.