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Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.51: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four segments (Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Transportation) under brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, and Carrier Transicold. Products span residential and... Read more

$64.51+5.6% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#18 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield1.59%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout61.00%
Stop $59.99Target $68.12(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$75.69+17.3%23 analysts
$68.12our TP
$64.51price
$75.69mean
$55
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.51: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.0Qual3.3Grw1.6Mom3.4Sent7.1Ins5.0Peer4.1Tech5.3Risk6.64.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Carrier Global Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.0
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$53.6B
EV/EBITDA20.7
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta1.38
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational operations52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025, are derived from international operations, including U.S. export sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.0
Roa
2.1
Operating Margin
2.6
Net Margin
3.0
Roe
3.3
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
5.0
Earnings quality warning: 65% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.17Resistance $68.79

Price Targets

$60
$68
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.02% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $64.51: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $59.99. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.12 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $59.99. Stop-loss: $59.99.

What are the risks of investing in CARR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.3), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.02% of cap).

Is CARR overvalued or undervalued?

Carrier Global Corporation trades at a P/E of 43.0 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CARR?

33 analysts cover CARR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Carrier Global Corporation do?Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four...

Carrier Global is a climate and energy solutions manufacturer with $21.7B in 2025 net sales, operating through four segments (Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Transportation) under brands including Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, and Carrier Transicold. Products span residential and commercial HVAC, heat pumps, and cold chain solutions sold to contractors, distributors, and end-users globally. International operations represented approximately 52% of 2025 net sales.

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