Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
CARR · Why this verdict
Why Carrier Global (CARR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carrier has about 16.5% upside and a reward-to-risk of 2.7, but a quality score of 2.5, no moat and weak momentum limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.5 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no moat. Bear case | Quality score recovers above 4.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBuilding products have recurring service revenue that supports stability. | ||
The analyst target implies about 16.5% upside with a reward-to-risk of 2.71 and analyst upside of 29%. Targets | Price moves toward the target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets for industrial names often fall when building demand weakens. | ||
Carrier beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 6.5%. Earnings | EPS keeps beating consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss and a put/call ratio of 1.94 suggest caution. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average but the average is still rising 0.6% with falling volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests selling pressure. | ||
Quality scores 2.5 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with no moat.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0.
CounterBuilding products have recurring service revenue that supports stability.
The analyst target implies about 16.5% upside with a reward-to-risk of 2.71 and analyst upside of 29%.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the target.
CounterTargets for industrial names often fall when building demand weakens.
Carrier beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 6.5%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus.
CounterOne miss and a put/call ratio of 1.94 suggest caution.
Price is below the 200-day average but the average is still rising 0.6% with falling volume accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests selling pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $42
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.36
Upside
+16.3%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Technical at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of 2.36.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.3, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.5, and Momentum at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 8% from the current 16.5%.
- P3Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Pullback Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope drops below 0% over a 30-day window.