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Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $310.19, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically... Read more

$310.19+6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.59%
Stop $288.48Target $330.66(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$367.40+18.4%15 analysts
$330.66our TP
$310.19price
$367.40mean
$430

Sell if holding. At $310.19, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Burlington Stores, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.1
P/E (Fwd)21.2
Mkt Cap$18.0B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE38.4%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta1.48
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.14bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$230-25.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $280.57Resistance $339.16

Price Targets

$288
$331
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BURL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $310.19, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $288.48. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the BURL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $330.66 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $288.48. Stop-loss: $288.48.

What are the risks of investing in BURL?

Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is BURL overvalued or undervalued?

Burlington Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.1 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BURL?

24 analysts cover BURL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $367.

What does Burlington Stores, Inc. do?Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US...

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically from thousands of vendors.

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