BURL offers 39.1% upside to the analyst target and a 41% ROE, but a confirmed downtrend, a red-flag 15% FCF/NI and leverage (D/E 2.9) point to caution and a possible reduction.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Upside To Target↓Deteriorating
- Excellent Return On Equity→Stable
- Weak Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $258.38: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Burlington Stores operates 1,212 off-price retail stores across 46 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, selling branded merchandise at up to 60% off department store prices. Revenue is generated entirely through in-store transactions, with over 99% of net sales from... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $258.38: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Burlington Stores, Inc.
About Burlington Stores, Inc.
Burlington Stores had 1,212 stores across 46 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico at the close of Fiscal 2025 — up from 1,108 the prior year after 113 net new openings. More than 99% of net sales are generated from company-operated brick-and-mortar locations, with no e-commerce channel; the company targets a long-term store count of 2,000. The store base spans 52.8 million gross square feet, supported by six distribution centers.
Burlington generates revenue exclusively through in-store merchandise transactions. The off-price model relies on opportunistic, close-to-need buying, with no vendor accounting for more than 5% of net purchases during Fiscal 2025 and no long-term purchase commitments held with any supplier. Product mix in Fiscal 2025 was: accessories and shoes 28%, ladies apparel 20%, home 20%, men's apparel 17%, kids and baby 12%, and outerwear 3%. The core customer demographic is 25-49 years old with household income of $25,000-$100,000. Competition includes department stores, specialty chains, mass merchants, and off-price peers; some traditional full-price retailers have developed off-price concepts that may directly compete, while growth in e-commerce spending may draw traffic away from physical stores.
Show full overview
Burlington leases substantially all of its store locations, with most leases structured as ten-year terms subject to multiple five-year renewal options. The company notes that if renewal terms prove commercially unacceptable, or suitable alternative sites cannot be identified, Burlington would generally be entitled to recover costs incurred upon cancellation but must continue paying rent for the balance of any non-terminated lease. With the company targeting 2,000 stores over the long term, the ability to secure favorable lease terms at scale is a material dependency on real estate market conditions outside its control.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
From Burlington Stores, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Burlington Stores, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hormuz's Hidden Tax: Discount Retailers Haven't Paid for the Diesel Shock Yet, Bank of America Warns — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Burlington Stores' Drop Was An Overreaction (NYSE:BURL) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Why Burlington (BURL) Shares Are Falling Today - StockStory — StockStory Aug 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) Sees Large Volume Increase Following Strong Earnings - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Burlington Stores (BURL) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Aug 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $258.38: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $240.29. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $329.79 (+27.6% upside). Prior stop was $240.29. Stop-loss: $240.29.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.
Burlington Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts rate BURL, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $366.
What does Burlington Stores, Inc. do?Burlington Stores operates 1,212 off-price retail stores across 46 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, selling...
Burlington Stores operates 1,212 off-price retail stores across 46 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, selling branded merchandise at up to 60% off department store prices. Revenue is generated entirely through in-store transactions, with over 99% of net sales from company-operated stores. The company targets a long-term base of 2,000 units by opportunistically expanding into vacant retail space.