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Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $290.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically... Read more

$290.38+13.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.58%
Stop $272.15Target $330.66(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$367.40+26.5%15 analysts
$330.66our TP
$290.38price
$367.40mean
$430

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $290.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Burlington Stores, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.5
P/E (Fwd)21.5
Mkt Cap$18.2B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE38.4%
Rev Growth11.3%
Beta1.48
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$230-20.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.2
Obv
7.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $280.57Resistance $351.32

Price Targets

$272
$331
A.Upside+13.9%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BURL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $290.38 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $272.15. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the BURL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $330.66 (+13.9% upside). Prior stop was $272.15. Stop-loss: $272.15.

What are the risks of investing in BURL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5.

Is BURL overvalued or undervalued?

Burlington Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 21.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BURL?

24 analysts cover BURL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $367.

What does Burlington Stores, Inc. do?Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US...

Burlington Stores is a national off-price retailer operating 1,212 stores across 46 states, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, selling apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounts to comparable department store prices. The company sources merchandise opportunistically from thousands of vendors.

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