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Buckle, Inc. (The) (BKE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.

The Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories targeting fashion-conscious customers. Denim represents 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales; private label merchandise accounts for approximately 47% of net... Read more

$55.59+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#3 of 12 Apparel Retail
Stop $52.73Target $55.96(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$53.00-4.7%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn16.2%
ROE49.4%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta1.09
Dividend2.53%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$43-23.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductprivate label merchandise47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales from private label merchandise accounted for approximately 47% of net sales in both fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2024.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Scott A. Werth appointed Senior Vice President of Stores effective March 31, 2026. 37-year Buckle veteran; previously VP of Sales and Strategy. No departure announced.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Separation agreements executed with Kari G. Smith (EVP Stores) and Michelle M. Hoffman (SVP Sales), who retired February 13, 2026. Each received 26 weeks' salary plus $20K COBRA payment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-29Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved fiscal 2026 executive compensation program. Elements consistent with fiscal 2025 program (base salary, incentive bonus, long-term equity). Smith and Hoffman excluded as retiring.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Kari G. Smith (EVP Stores, Board Director) and Michelle M. Hoffman (SVP Sales) to retire effective February 13, 2026. Smith's Board seat also ending. No successors named; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $49.07Resistance $57.10

Price Targets

$53
$56
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-22 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.59 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $52.73. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.96 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $52.73. Stop-loss: $52.73.

What are the risks of investing in BKE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is BKE overvalued or undervalued?

Buckle, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BKE?

9 analysts cover BKE with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Buckle, Inc. (The) do?The Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and...

The Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories targeting fashion-conscious customers. Denim represents 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales; private label merchandise accounts for approximately 47% of net sales.

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