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BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-10 states (53.0%).

BrightSpring Health Services delivers home and community-based healthcare across Pharmacy Solutions (specialty/infusion/home dispensing, 43M+ prescriptions in 2025) and Provider Services (home health, hospice, rehab) segments, serving 465,000+ patients daily in all 50 states.... Read more

$57.40+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 13 Health Information Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.02%
Stop $53.40Target $57.82(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$60.53+5.5%15 analysts
$57.82our TP
$57.40price
$60.53mean
$49
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-10 states (53.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — BrightSpring Health Services, I

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: top-10 states (53.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)75.2
P/E (Fwd)27.4
Mkt Cap$11.2B
EV/EBITDA24.8
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth25.6%
Beta1.72
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographictop-10 states53%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 53% of our revenue in 10 states for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.77Resistance $59.00

Price Targets

$53
$58
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Red flag in news: 'fraud'
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTSG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: top-10 states (53.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $53.40. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BTSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.82 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $53.40. Stop-loss: $53.40.

What are the risks of investing in BTSG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: top-10 states (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Is BTSG overvalued or undervalued?

BrightSpring Health Services, I trades at a P/E of 75.2 (forward 27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BTSG?

22 analysts cover BTSG with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $61.

What does BrightSpring Health Services, I do?BrightSpring Health Services delivers home and community-based healthcare across Pharmacy Solutions...

BrightSpring Health Services delivers home and community-based healthcare across Pharmacy Solutions (specialty/infusion/home dispensing, 43M+ prescriptions in 2025) and Provider Services (home health, hospice, rehab) segments, serving 465,000+ patients daily in all 50 states. Revenue is primarily Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement with ~53% from 10 states. The March 2026 divestiture of the Community Living business for $835M sharpens focus on Senior and Specialty patient pharmacy and clinical care.

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