BTSG combines strong 26% growth, excellent cash conversion and bullish momentum, but thin 9.8% upside to the analyst target, no competitive moat and low profit margins argue for holding rather than adding.
Thesis pillars
- Below Average Business Quality→Stable
- Strong Growth Profile↑Improving
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Health Information Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
BrightSpring Health Services delivers pharmacy and provider services to complex patients in home and community settings across all 50 states, serving over 465,000 patients daily. Revenue comes from Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurer reimbursement across Pharmacy... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 114d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About BrightSpring Health Services, I
About BrightSpring Health Services, I
BrightSpring Health Services served over 465,000 patients daily across all 50 states in 2025, operating through more than 175 pharmacies and filling 43 million prescriptions during the year. The company's approximately 10,500 clinical providers and pharmacists also delivered 21 million hours of home health, hospice, rehab, and supportive care. Approximately 53% of revenues were concentrated in 10 states with favorable demographics and regulatory environments.
The company generates revenue through two segments: Pharmacy Solutions, which served over 410,000 patients through more than 4,500 unique customer and payor contracts across 6,600 customer locations in 2025; and Provider Services, which delivers clinical home health, hospice, rehab therapy, and personal care to approximately 16,000 Senior and Specialty patients. On March 30, 2026, BrightSpring completed the divestiture of its Community Living business to National Mentor Holdings for $835 million, narrowing Provider Services to clinical and supportive care. Payer mix is heavily weighted toward Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance, with managed care organizations increasingly intermediating reimbursements under capitation models. The Pharmacy Solutions segment holds access to 149 limited-distribution oncology drugs with 18 more in the launch pipeline, creating preferred channel relationships with pharmaceutical manufacturers.
Show full overview
Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement risk is the dominant financial exposure: CMS can reduce base prospective payment rates, eliminate annual rate increases, change case-mix thresholds, or reclassify home health resource groups — each of which may impact revenue. The Review Choice Demonstration, running through 2029, subjects home health agencies in Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas to pre-claim review, increasing administrative costs and potentially delaying payments. With more than half of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans as of January 2025, MCO contracts — terminable on 60 days' notice — add further rate pressure.
See also: Healthcare · Health Information Services
From BrightSpring Health Services, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 1, 2026Recent Developments — BrightSpring Health Services, I
Latest news
- NEWS 5 must-read analyst questions from BrightSpring Health Services’s Q3 earnings call - TradingView — TradingView Nov 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Stock May Look Pricey As Guidance Rises - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is Q3 Earnings Preview Altering The Investment Case For BrightSpring Health Services Stock? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) Set to Report Q3 Earnings on October 30 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BTSG Ahead of Q3 Earnings: Can Growth Offset Ongoing IRA Risks? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographic10 states53%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 53% of our revenue in 10 states for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicare and Medicaid10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantial revenue from government healthcare programs, primarily Medicare and Medicaid.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-31Item 2.01MEDIUMBrightSpring completed the divestiture of its Community Living business to National Mentor Holdings, Inc. for $835 million on March 30, 2026, as previously disclosed January 17, 2025.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $74.73 (+7.0%), stop $64.95 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $74.73 (+7.0% upside). Analyst target $74.73 (+7.0%), stop $64.95 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $64.95.
Thin upside margin: 7.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
BrightSpring Health Services, I trades at a P/E of 46.9 (forward 28.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
25 analysts rate BTSG, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 17 analysts publish price targets averaging $83.
What does BrightSpring Health Services, I do?BrightSpring Health Services delivers pharmacy and provider services to complex patients in home and community settings...
BrightSpring Health Services delivers pharmacy and provider services to complex patients in home and community settings across all 50 states, serving over 465,000 patients daily. Revenue comes from Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurer reimbursement across Pharmacy Solutions (43 million prescriptions in 2025) and Provider Services segments.