Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
BTSG · Why this verdict
Why BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BTSG combines strong 26% growth, excellent cash conversion and bullish momentum, but thin 9.8% upside to the analyst target, no competitive moat and low profit margins argue for holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below average (quality score 4.5/10, gross margin and operating margin scores near zero) with no competitive moat. Key risks | Margins stay thin and quality scores remain below 5/10. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer ranking shows quality and growth in the upper range versus peers, and scale could lift margins over time. | ||
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, with growth scoring 9.6/10 and earnings growth scoring 10.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings keep growing at double-digit rates over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe growth score rests on only two inputs (confidence 0.67) and a forward P/E of 29.4x leaves little room if growth slows. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 270% FCF/NI and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9, so reported profits are backed by cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays well above net income through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow can exceed net income temporarily due to working-capital timing, and net margin is only about 1.3%, so the ratio may be inflated by a small denominator. | ||
At $66.89 the stock is 9.8% below the $73.43 analyst target against 13.2% downside, so reward-to-risk is only 0.74. Upside pct | Upside remains limited unless the analyst target moves materially above $73.43. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalysts show 22% upside in the sentiment inputs and the breakout setup with rising volume could carry the price through the target. | ||
Leverage (D/E 1.1) and high volatility (beta 1.88) add risk, and the engine applies a -0.5 leverage penalty. Bear case | Debt-to-equity stays around or above 1.0 and beta stays above 1.3. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong cash generation can fund debt paydown, and bullish momentum with volume accumulation reduces near-term downside. | ||
Business quality is below average (quality score 4.5/10, gross margin and operating margin scores near zero) with no competitive moat.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Margins stay thin and quality scores remain below 5/10.
CounterPeer ranking shows quality and growth in the upper range versus peers, and scale could lift margins over time.
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, with growth scoring 9.6/10 and earnings growth scoring 10.0.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings keep growing at double-digit rates over the next 12 months.
CounterThe growth score rests on only two inputs (confidence 0.67) and a forward P/E of 29.4x leaves little room if growth slows.
Cash conversion is excellent at 270% FCF/NI and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9, so reported profits are backed by cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays well above net income through the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow can exceed net income temporarily due to working-capital timing, and net margin is only about 1.3%, so the ratio may be inflated by a small denominator.
At $66.89 the stock is 9.8% below the $73.43 analyst target against 13.2% downside, so reward-to-risk is only 0.74.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside remains limited unless the analyst target moves materially above $73.43.
CounterAnalysts show 22% upside in the sentiment inputs and the breakout setup with rising volume could carry the price through the target.
Leverage (D/E 1.1) and high volatility (beta 1.88) add risk, and the engine applies a -0.5 leverage penalty.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity stays around or above 1.0 and beta stays above 1.3.
CounterStrong cash generation can fund debt paydown, and bullish momentum with volume accumulation reduces near-term downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 270% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.8 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $874,383 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:115d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.44
Upside
+6.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.78>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Technical at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Momentum at 8.5, and Sentiment at 8.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Quality at 4.5, and Insider at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income conversion falls below 100% from current 270%.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $73.43, exceeding the analyst target.
- P4Below Average Business Quality
Trip ifOperating margin rises above 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Leverage And Volatility Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 0.5 from current 1.1.