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Heartflow, Inc. (HTFL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.88: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.

Heartflow provides AI software that analyzes coronary CT angiography images to diagnose coronary artery disease, with 1,465+ installed accounts in the US and 600,000+ patients assessed through Dec 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from Heartflow FFRCT Analysis per-use fees... Read more

$29.88+9.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#13 of 13 Health Information Services
Stop $27.84Target $32.77(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$37.67+26.1%6 analysts
$32.77our TP
$29.88price
$37.67mean
$43

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.88: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Heartflow FFRCT Analysis (98.0%)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -169.0%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-98.4
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA-38.0
Profit Mgn-66.3%
ROE-111.4%
Rev Growth40.5%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV106%elevated
Max Pain$20-33.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductHeartflow FFRCT Analysis98%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our Heartflow FFRCT Analysis represented 98% of our total revenue'
  • MEDIUMCustomerconcentrated customer base
    10-K Item 1A: 'We face risks associated with a concentrated customer base... the decision-making function for some of these accounts is concentrated in a relatively small number of customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
7.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Rsi
3.8
Ma Position
7.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 14 days

Unprofitable operations — net margin -66.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
7.8
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -18% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: 23 (fail)

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.4
Analyst Target
6.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $23.19Resistance $33.38

Price Targets

$28
$33
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -169.0%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.88: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $27.84. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.77 (+9.5% upside). Prior stop was $27.84. Stop-loss: $27.84.

What are the risks of investing in HTFL?

Concentration risk — Product: Heartflow FFRCT Analysis (98.0%); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -169.0%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is HTFL overvalued or undervalued?

Heartflow, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -98.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTFL?

12 analysts cover HTFL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Heartflow, Inc. do?Heartflow provides AI software that analyzes coronary CT angiography images to diagnose coronary artery disease, with...

Heartflow provides AI software that analyzes coronary CT angiography images to diagnose coronary artery disease, with 1,465+ installed accounts in the US and 600,000+ patients assessed through Dec 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from Heartflow FFRCT Analysis per-use fees billed to hospitals and imaging centers.

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