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Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $45.01, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Hinge Health provides AI-powered digital MSK care for self-insured employers and health plans, covering 22M+ employer lives and 3M+ fully-insured and Medicare Advantage lives. Revenue is subscription/engagement-based, contracted primarily through 60+ health plan and PBM partners.

$45.01+15.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 13 Health Information Services
Stop $41.85Target $51.78(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$57.53+27.8%15 analysts
$51.78our TP
$45.01price
$57.53mean
$72

Sell if holding. At $45.01, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Overbought (RSI 83)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA-6.1
Profit Mgn-89.9%
ROE-132.9%
Rev Growth45.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV88%elevated
Max Pain$30-33.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerHealth Care Service Corporation18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'client contracts through (i) Health Care Service Corporation ("HCSC") accounted for 17.5% and 17.1% of our revenue, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerElevance Health14%
    10-K Item 1A: '(ii) Elevance Health, Inc., formerly known as Anthem, Inc. ("Elevance"), accounted for 13.7% and 14.0% of our revenue, respectively'
  • LOWCustomerAetna Life Insurance Company11%
    10-K Item 1A: '(iii) Aetna Life Insurance Company ("Aetna") accounted for 10.5% and 11.6% of our revenue, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Tyler Sloat appointed Class I director and Compensation Committee Chair effective March 16, 2026; also appointed to Audit Committee. Sloat is COO/CFO at Freshworks Inc. No departures noted.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
2.3
52w Position
4.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $34.64Resistance $45.99

Price Targets

$42
$52
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HNGE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $45.01, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $41.85. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HNGE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.78 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $41.85. Stop-loss: $41.85.

What are the risks of investing in HNGE?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Overbought (RSI 83).

Is HNGE overvalued or undervalued?

Hinge Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HNGE?

23 analysts cover HNGE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Hinge Health, Inc. do?Hinge Health provides AI-powered digital MSK care for self-insured employers and health plans, covering 22M+ employer...

Hinge Health provides AI-powered digital MSK care for self-insured employers and health plans, covering 22M+ employer lives and 3M+ fully-insured and Medicare Advantage lives. Revenue is subscription/engagement-based, contracted primarily through 60+ health plan and PBM partners.

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