Privia Health Group is growing revenue at 26% annually with strong analyst conviction (8.9/10 rating, 36% upside target) and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 508%, but a quality score of 3.5 below the minimum threshold and the recent Q1 2026 earnings miss are key risks to monitor.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Physician Platform→Stable
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Analyst Conviction 36pct Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Health Information Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.40: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Privia Health Group organizes physicians and non-physician clinicians into single-TIN Medical Groups across 24 states and DC, providing technology, revenue cycle management, and value-based care infrastructure to 5,380 implemented providers caring for over 5.8 million patients.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.40: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Privia Health Group, Inc.
About Privia Health Group, Inc.
Privia Health Group held 5,380 implemented providers across 24 states and the District of Columbia at December 31, 2025, organizing physicians and non-physician clinicians into single-TIN Medical Groups supported by the Privia Technology Solution. The company's ten ACOs served over 298,000 Medicare beneficiaries through the Medicare Shared Savings Program in the 2025 performance year, building on the $233.1 million in shared savings and 32% year-over-year growth delivered in 2024. Since 2014, the company has delivered more than $1.5 billion in total shared savings across government and commercial programs.
Privia Health earns revenue through four main streams: fee-for-service patient care from Owned and Friendly Medical Groups, per-member-per-month care management fees, value-based care revenue in the form of capitated payments and shared savings bonuses, and supplemental services including concierge medicine, virtual visits, behavioral health management, and direct primary care for self-insured employers. The Privia Technology Solution integrates EMR workflows, population health analytics, revenue cycle management, and patient-access tools designed to reduce the administrative burden on physician practices. Payer contracts span commercial insurance, Medicare Advantage, MSSP, and Medicaid — meaning CMS reimbursement rate decisions directly affect a material portion of revenue. Operations are concentrated in certain U.S. states, and the company operates in 9 states solely through VBC arrangements without a locally owned Medical Group footprint.
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The U.S. Supreme Court's June 2024 ruling in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo shifted greater responsibility for statutory interpretation of federal agency actions to courts — a development Privia Health's 10-K identifies as having significant impacts on 'the heavily-regulated healthcare industry.' For Privia Health, this may weigh on CMS guidance governing MSSP shared savings structures and Medicare Advantage rates, as well as Stark Law exception interpretations that underpin the company's physician compensation and management service agreement structures. The company also acknowledges that certain current arrangements may not qualify for all federal Anti-Kickback Statute safe harbors, creating ongoing compliance exposure.
See also: Healthcare · Health Information Services
From Privia Health Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Privia Health Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Privia Health Gr Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $2.350B-$2.450B to $2.500B-$2.550B vs $2.457B Est — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Privia Health Gr Q3 Adj. EPS $0.21 Beats $0.10 Estimate, Sales $656.960M Beat $610.768M Estimate — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Privia Health Group, Inc. Acquires American Choice Healthcare MSSP, LLC — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Privia Health Group Acquires American Choice Healthcare MSSP For ~$36M — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Full Transcript: Privia Health Gr Q2 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographiccertain U.S. states10-K Item 1A: 'The operations of the Company and its Medical Groups are concentrated in certain U.S. states'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.40: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.08. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $28.32 (+26.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.08. Stop-loss: $21.08.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Privia Health Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 106.7 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts rate PRVA, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 17 analysts publish price targets averaging $31.
What does Privia Health Group, Inc. do?Privia Health Group organizes physicians and non-physician clinicians into single-TIN Medical Groups across 24 states...
Privia Health Group organizes physicians and non-physician clinicians into single-TIN Medical Groups across 24 states and DC, providing technology, revenue cycle management, and value-based care infrastructure to 5,380 implemented providers caring for over 5.8 million patients. Revenue comes from fee-for-service care, per-member-per-month management fees, capitated and shared savings payments, and supplemental services.