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Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Privia Health is a technology-driven physician-enablement company organizing 5,380 providers into Medical Groups across 24 states and DC, integrating fee-for-service and value-based care programs including MSSP ACOs serving 298,000+ Medicare beneficiaries. Revenue flows from FFS... Read more

$23.29+22.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#6 of 13 Health Information Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.71%
Stop $21.66Target $28.42(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$31.58+35.6%19 analysts
$28.42our TP
$23.29price
$31.58mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Privia Health Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)139.4
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA55.1
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE3.6%
Rev Growth25.8%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographiccertain U.S. states
    10-K Item 1A: 'The operations of the Company and its Medical Groups are concentrated in certain U.S. states, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental, competitive and other conditions'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.5
Net Margin
0.5
Roe
1.2
Roa
1.2
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 508% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.40Resistance $25.24

Price Targets

$22
$28
A.Upside+22.0%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 2.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.66. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PRVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.42 (+22.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.66. Stop-loss: $21.66.

What are the risks of investing in PRVA?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is PRVA overvalued or undervalued?

Privia Health Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 139.4 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRVA?

27 analysts cover PRVA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Privia Health Group, Inc. do?Privia Health is a technology-driven physician-enablement company organizing 5,380 providers into Medical Groups across...

Privia Health is a technology-driven physician-enablement company organizing 5,380 providers into Medical Groups across 24 states and DC, integrating fee-for-service and value-based care programs including MSSP ACOs serving 298,000+ Medicare beneficiaries. Revenue flows from FFS patient care, PMPM care management fees, capitation, and shared savings; operations are concentrated in certain U.S. states.

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