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Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.82: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Privia Health Group is a technology-driven physician enablement company operating in 24 states and DC, organizing physicians into value-based care networks through its Privia Platform. Revenue is generated from a percentage of attributed physician collections via management... Read more

$24.82+15.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 13 Health Information Services
Stop $23.34Target $28.62(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$31.80+28.1%20 analysts
$28.62our TP
$24.82price
$31.80mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.82: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-22.7% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -49.6%), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)137.2
P/E (Fwd)20.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA59.7
Profit Mgn1.1%
ROE4.0%
Rev Growth17.4%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$38+51.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographiccertain U.S. states
    10-K Item 1A: 'The operations of the Company and its Medical Groups are concentrated in certain U.S. states'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.1
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
8.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.5
Operating Margin
0.8
Roa
1.1
Roe
1.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 586% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.40Resistance $24.89

Price Targets

$23
$29
A.Upside+15.3%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-22.7% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -49.6%), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.16% of cap)
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.82: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Prior stop was $23.34. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PRVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.62 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $23.34. Stop-loss: $23.34.

What are the risks of investing in PRVA?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-22.7% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -49.6%), Material insider selling (27 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is PRVA overvalued or undervalued?

Privia Health Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 137.2 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRVA?

28 analysts cover PRVA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Privia Health Group, Inc. do?Privia Health Group is a technology-driven physician enablement company operating in 24 states and DC, organizing...

Privia Health Group is a technology-driven physician enablement company operating in 24 states and DC, organizing physicians into value-based care networks through its Privia Platform. Revenue is generated from a percentage of attributed physician collections via management service agreements, serving 5,380 implemented providers and over 5.8 million patients.

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