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BTGB2Gold CorpBuy Wait7.0·$4.57+2.24%
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B2Gold Corp (BTG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $4.32. BUY gates pass at $4.57, but commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced. and consecutive earnings misses (3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $4.32 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

B2Gold Corp. operates as a gold producer company in Canada. The company operates the Fekola Mine in Mali; the Masbate Mine in the Philippines; the Otjikoto Mine in Namibia; the Goose Mine in Canada. It also owns 100% interest in the Gramalote gold project in Colombia. In... Read more

$4.57+31.3% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#12 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.07%
IncomeYield1.79%(5y avg 4.33%)Payout21.05%sustainable
Entry $4.32(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $3.87Target $5.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1Setup A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$6.55+43.3%5 analysts
$5.70our TP
$4.57price
$6.55mean
$8

Wait for pullback to $4.32. BUY gates pass at $4.57, but commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced. and consecutive earnings misses (3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $4.32 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on materials cycle peak fwd=3.8x,ratio=0.32x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)3.8
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA3.0
Profit Mgn14.8%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth117.7%
Beta1.30
Dividend1.79%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$5-1.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 179.0%
GatesMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=3.8x,ratio=0.32xMomentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.86Resistance $4.79

Price Targets

$4
$4
$6
A.Upside+24.7%
A.R:R1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=3.8x,ratio=0.32x

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $4.32. BUY gates pass at $4.57, but commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced. and consecutive earnings misses (3) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $4.32 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $5.70 (+24.7%), stop $3.87 (−18.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BTG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.70 (+31.3% upside). Target $5.70 (+24.7%), stop $3.87 (−18.1%), Setup A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $3.87.

What are the risks of investing in BTG?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.32× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is BTG overvalued or undervalued?

B2Gold Corp trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 3.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BTG?

16 analysts cover BTG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $7.

What does B2Gold Corp do?B2Gold Corp. operates as a gold producer company in Canada. The company operates the Fekola Mine in Mali; the Masbate...

B2Gold Corp. operates as a gold producer company in Canada. The company operates the Fekola Mine in Mali; the Masbate Mine in the Philippines; the Otjikoto Mine in Namibia; the Goose Mine in Canada. It also owns 100% interest in the Gramalote gold project in Colombia. In addition, the company has a portfolio of other evaluation and exploration assets in Mali, Canada and Finland. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · SSRM (SSR Mining Inc.)
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