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Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.08× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra... Read more

$71.46+23.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#23 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.46%
IncomeYield2.97%(5y avg 4.98%)Payout166.96%at-risk
Stop $68.91Target $88.17(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$101.34+41.8%10 analysts
$88.17our TP
$71.46price
$101.34mean
$51
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.08× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=5.6x,ratio=0.08x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Aura Minerals Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.08× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)67.5
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE40.3%
Rev Growth136.5%
Beta
Dividend2.97%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C3.78bearish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.3
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
4.6
Growth Rank
7.4
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=5.6x,ratio=0.08xA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.04Resistance $101.90

Price Targets

$69
$88
A.Upside+23.4%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.6x,ratio=0.08x

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUGO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.08× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $88.17 (+23.4%), stop $68.91 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.17 (+23.4% upside). Target $88.17 (+23.4%), stop $68.91 (−3.7%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $68.91.

What are the risks of investing in AUGO?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.08× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is AUGO overvalued or undervalued?

Aura Minerals Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.5 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AUGO?

13 analysts cover AUGO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Aura Minerals Inc. do?Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base...

Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base metal projects in the Americas. It operates through The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande Mine Projects segments. The company primarily explores gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Aura Gold Inc. and changed its name to Aura Minerals Inc. in July 2007. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Coconut Grove, Florida.

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