Value
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
BTG · Why this verdict
Why B2Gold (BTG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
B2Gold is a high-quality gold miner trading at 5.3x forward earnings with a 9/9 Piotroski score and 20.1% upside to the analyst target, but it is pulling back below its 200-day average and reports earnings in 3 days with a mixed record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $5.52 sits 20.1% above the $4.60 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9 against 10.4% downside. Analyst target | Price moves toward $5.52 while holding above the $4.05 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light so the signal is dampened, and news sentiment is negative at -0.60. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average, but the average is still rising at +2.0% per 30 days, so this is a pullback in an uptrend and not a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and OBV stops falling. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and momentum is scored only 3.4 out of 10. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and a PEG of 0.03, B2Gold is attractively valued, with value scoring 9.3 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while earnings growth holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGold miner earnings swing with the gold price, so a low multiple on peak earnings can be a value trap. | ||
B2Gold has strong margins of 21%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, showing compounder quality. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and margins stay above 18% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality shows a red flag with FCF at only 37% of net income, so reported profit is not turning into cash. | ||
B2Gold beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters but missed by 58.9% most recently (average surprise -5.3%), with the next report in 3 days. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive at the 2026-11-04 report. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings in 3 days is a binary event with implied volatility of 77%, and the latest miss was large. | ||
The analyst target of $5.52 sits 20.1% above the $4.60 price, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.9 against 10.4% downside.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $5.52 while holding above the $4.05 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light so the signal is dampened, and news sentiment is negative at -0.60.
Price is below the 200-day average, but the average is still rising at +2.0% per 30 days, so this is a pullback in an uptrend and not a confirmed breakdown.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and OBV stops falling.
CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and momentum is scored only 3.4 out of 10.
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and a PEG of 0.03, B2Gold is attractively valued, with value scoring 9.3 out of 10.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while earnings growth holds.
CounterGold miner earnings swing with the gold price, so a low multiple on peak earnings can be a value trap.
B2Gold has strong margins of 21%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, showing compounder quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher and margins stay above 18% over 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality shows a red flag with FCF at only 37% of net income, so reported profit is not turning into cash.
B2Gold beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters but missed by 58.9% most recently (average surprise -5.3%), with the next report in 3 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive at the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterEarnings in 3 days is a binary event with implied volatility of 77%, and the latest miss was large.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 37% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.82
Upside
+17.7%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.3
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.36>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.82.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Quality at 8.2, and Growth at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Catalyst at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.82 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from the current 5.3x.
- P2High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P3Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Upside To 5 52
Trip ifConsensus analyst target falls below $4.80 from the current $5.52.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +2.0%.