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Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty... Read more

$14.16+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#24 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.19%
IncomeYield8.53%(5y avg 9.59%)Payout100.39%at-risk
Entry $13.07(support + ATR)Stop $12.53Target $13.91(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $14.16 has reached target $13.91. No upside to wait for. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Black Stone Minerals, L.P.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn72.5%
ROE27.8%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.05
Dividend8.53%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityoil and condensate52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from oil and condensate sales'
  • MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas and natural gas liquids48%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 48% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from natural gas and natural gas liquids sales'
  • MEDIUMGeographicShelby Trough
    10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 13% of our royalty revenues and 14% of our working interest revenues from three operators in the Shelby Trough area of the Haynesville play in East Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    Board of Black Stone Minerals GP, L.L.C. appointed Anne Hamman as new director and Audit Committee member effective immediately. No other officer changes reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
8.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.4
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.92Resistance $14.19

Price Targets

$13
$13
$14
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.3%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: SMALL-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BSM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $14.16 has reached target $13.91. No upside to wait for. Target $13.91 (-1.8%), stop $12.53 (−13.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.91 (+6.4% upside). Target $13.91 (-1.8%), stop $12.53 (−13.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $12.53.

What are the risks of investing in BSM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is BSM overvalued or undervalued?

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BSM?

7 analysts cover BSM with a consensus score of 3.7/5.

What does Black Stone Minerals, L.P. do?Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It...

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.6 million gross acres located in 41 states in the United States. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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