Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BSM stock price target?

Take-profit $14.69 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.62.

Q: Is BSM overvalued or undervalued?

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BSM?

8 analysts cover BSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.22: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

$14.22+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#19 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P

Stop $13.62Target $14.69(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.22: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

High-quality business

Attractive valuation

Risks

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%)

Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2

P/E (Fwd)12.6

Mkt Cap$3.0B

EV/EBITDA10.1

Profit Mgn74.8%

ROE26.6%

Rev Growth-11.6%

Beta0.17

Dividend8.40%

Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish

IV84%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCommodityoil and condensate52%
10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from oil and condensate sales'
MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas and natural gas liquids48%
10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 48% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from natural gas and natural gas liquids sales'
LOWGeographicShelby Trough
10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 13% of our royalty revenues and 14% of our working interest revenues from three operators in the Shelby Trough area'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
On February 4, 2026, the Board of Black Stone Minerals GP appointed Anne Hamman to the Board and Audit Committee, effective immediately. Standard non-employee director compensation. No reason cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.315%1.25

Quality7.715%1.16

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum5.110%0.51

Sentiment5.010%0.50

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup5.85%0.29

Risk Profile6.85%0.34

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)5.76

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

2.3

Value Rank

4.0

Quality Rank

9.5

Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

53 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.38Resistance $14.99

Price Targets

$14

$15

A.Upside+3.3%

A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $14.22: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.62. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.69 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.62. Stop-loss: $13.62.

What are the risks of investing in BSM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is BSM overvalued or undervalued?

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BSM?

8 analysts cover BSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does Black Stone Minerals, L.P. do?Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It...

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.6 million gross acres located in 41 states in the United States. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Houston, Texas.