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Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. At $117.92, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%).

Badger Meter manufactures water management solutions including smart meters, water quality sensors, leak detection hardware, and BEACON SaaS for water utilities, with ~95% of net sales from water-related applications. Revenue splits ~89% utility water and ~11% flow... Read more

$117.92+8.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#13 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.23%
IncomeYield1.40%(5y avg 0.72%)Payout34.84%sustainable
Stop $109.83Target $127.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$147.00+24.7%9 analysts
$127.89our TP
$117.92price
$147.00mean
$110
$169

Sell if holding. At $117.92, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Badger Meter, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.8
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE19.6%
Rev Growth-9.0%
Beta0.68
Dividend1.40%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductUtility Water89%
    10-K Item 1: 'Utility Water Product Line (approximately 89% of Net Sales in 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.3
Declining revenue: -9%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 140.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $112.86Resistance $125.81

Price Targets

$110
$128
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $117.92, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $109.83. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the BMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.89 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $109.83. Stop-loss: $109.83.

What are the risks of investing in BMI?

Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is BMI overvalued or undervalued?

Badger Meter, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BMI?

17 analysts cover BMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Badger Meter, Inc. do?Badger Meter manufactures water management solutions including smart meters, water quality sensors, leak detection...

Badger Meter manufactures water management solutions including smart meters, water quality sensors, leak detection hardware, and BEACON SaaS for water utilities, with ~95% of net sales from water-related applications. Revenue splits ~89% utility water and ~11% flow instrumentation, sold to utilities and industrial customers primarily in North America. No single customer exceeds 10% of sales.

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