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Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments

Sell if holding. At $118.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for microprocessors and castings.

Badger Meter manufactures flow measurement, water quality, and connectivity solutions with ~95% of net sales from water-related applications. The Utility Water product line (~89% of 2025 net sales) serves water utilities and the Flow Instrumentation segment serves commercial and... Read more

$118.27+8.1% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#14 of 14 Scientific & Technical Instruments
Stop $110.06Target $127.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$147.00+24.3%9 analysts
$127.89our TP
$118.27price
$147.00mean
$110
$169

Sell if holding. At $118.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for microprocessors and castings. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for microprocessors and castings
Thin upside margin: 8.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.7
P/E (Fwd)23.8
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA16.1
Profit Mgn14.6%
ROE19.6%
Rev Growth-9.0%
Beta0.90
Dividend1.36%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$80-32.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle suppliers for microprocessors and castings
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on single suppliers for microprocessors, castings and components in several of our product lines'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.3
Declining revenue: -9%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $112.09Resistance $162.44

Price Targets

$110
$128
A.Upside+8.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $118.27, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for microprocessors and castings. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $110.06. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.89 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $110.06. Stop-loss: $110.06.

What are the risks of investing in BMI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for microprocessors and castings; Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is BMI overvalued or undervalued?

Badger Meter, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 23.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BMI?

17 analysts cover BMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Badger Meter, Inc. do?Badger Meter manufactures flow measurement, water quality, and connectivity solutions with ~95% of net sales from...

Badger Meter manufactures flow measurement, water quality, and connectivity solutions with ~95% of net sales from water-related applications. The Utility Water product line (~89% of 2025 net sales) serves water utilities and the Flow Instrumentation segment serves commercial and industrial customers globally.

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